NRIM

Rating buyAI Memo

Northrim BanCorp

As of 2026-03-27/Confidence medium

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Data freshness

AI Memo

As of 2026-03-27 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment AI

Decision Panel

Action, confidence, horizon, and decision blockers at a glance.

Action

buy

Confidence

medium

Horizon

—

Key catalyst

Capital return / dividend cadence • 2026-06-25

Expected move: +9%

Biggest risk

NIM compression or elevated loan-loss provisioning reduces EPS and forces capital conservation; limited scale and regional concentration magnify downside.

Invalidation

Break below $20 or thesis failure.

What would change my mind?

Mortgage banking momentum (originations and servicing growth) accelerates fee revenue and lifts valuation; credit remains benign and capital returns continue, supporting a re-rating toward the analyst-high range.

Research note

Recommendation

buy

Confidence

medium

As of

2026-03-27

Base target

$31

p=60%

Bull target

$34

p=20%

Bear target

$20

p=20%

Key bullets

Fast scan of bull, bear, and watch items

BullKey bullets

Next quarterly results / 10-Q (monitor credit & NIM)
Mortgage banking & servicing portfolio scale supports revenue growth
Mortgage banking momentum (originations and servicing growth) accelerates fee revenue and lifts valuation; credit remains benign and capital returns continue, supporting a re-rating toward the analyst-high range.

BearKey bullets

Elevated credit losses or reserve builds
NIM compression from funding-cost pressure
Slower-than-expected mortgage servicing cashflows or MSR valuation weakness

WatchKey bullets

Capital return / dividend cadence

Summary

High-level snapshot

Recommendation

buy

Model confidence

medium

Timeframe

Asset

Equity

Trigger

Base case: $31 (p=60%)

Bull/Bear spread: +19% / -30%

Vs latest close: Bull +19% · Base +9% · Bear -30%

Scenario probabilities

Bull Target: $34 (p=20%)Base Target: $31 (p=60%)Bear Target: $20 (p=20%)

Commentary

Market and analyst sentiment is cautiously constructive: several recent analyst targets cluster around low-$30s supporting upside vs. the $22.79 anchor [#SERP-1][#SERP-4]. Recent filings highlight mortgage originations and servicing growth, which is the dominant positive narrative; investors remain watchful of near-term credit and NIM prints [#10-K-2026-03-06][#8-K-2026-01-23].

As of 2026-03-27 • Updated bi-weekly / post-earningsSource: Internal modelMethodology

Analyst Summary

Thesis highlights from the latest analysis

Bull Case

Bear Case

NIM compression or elevated loan-loss provisioning reduces EPS and forces capital conservation; limited scale and regional concentration magnify downside.

Drivers

Scannable catalysts and supporting factors

Next quarterly results / 10-Q (monitor credit & NIM)
Mortgage banking & servicing portfolio scale supports revenue growth

Human Analyst Targets

External snippets for comparison only; verify at source.

Unverified externalLast fetched 2026-03-27Source quality: external scrape

External snippets are unverified; treat as directional signals only. Always confirm with the original provider.

Inline RA est

Provider

serper

Median (USD)

$31.25

Range (USD)

$22.79 - $33.00

Count

Query: Northrim BanCorp Inc Common (NRIM) analyst consensus price target high low average

Northrim (NRIM) Stock Forecast & Price Target - Investing.com
Search result #1
According to projections from 2 analysts, the average 12-month price target for Northrim is 31.00 USD, with a high estimate of 31 USD and a ...
Extracted: $31.00Open source6 days ago
Northrim BanCorp, Inc.: Target Price Consensus and Analysts ...
Search result #4
Analysts' Consensus ; Mean consensus. BUY ; Number of Analysts. 2 ; Last Close Price. 23.35USD ; Average target price. 31.50USD ; Spread / Average Target. +34.90%.
Extracted: $23.35, $31.50Open source
NRIM Stock Quote Price and Forecast | CNN
Search result #6
NRIM is trading in the middle of its 52-week range and below its 200-day simple moving average. ... The price of NRIM shares has decreased $0.03 since the market ...
Open source
Northrim BanCorp, Inc. (NRIM) Stock Forecast & Price Prediction
Search result #7
Based on our analysis of 1 Wall Street analyst, NRIM has a bullish consensus with a median price target of $31.00 (ranging from $31.00 to $31.00). The overall ...
Extracted: $31.00Open source
NRIM Stock Forecast & Price Target | Northrim BanCorp Inc (NRIM)
Search result #9
The average stock forecast for Northrim BanCorp Inc (NRIM) is 31.62 USD. This price target corresponds to an upside of 40.72%. The range of stock forecasts ...
Extracted: $31.62Open source
Northrim BanCorp, Inc. (NRIM) Analyst Ratings, Estimates & Forecasts
Search result #2
See Northrim BanCorp, Inc. (NRIM) stock analyst estimates, including earnings and revenue, EPS, upgrades and downgrades.
Open source

Scenarios

Bull Target (Scenario probability)

$34 / p=20% prob

Base Target (Scenario probability)

$31 / p=60% prob

Bear Target (Scenario probability)

$20 / p=20% prob

Price $28 as of 2026-07-16

Nearest Scenario: Base (∆ 9%)

Targets vs latest close: Bull +19% · Base +9% · Bear -30%

Sentiment & Exposure

Sentiment unavailable: insufficient coverage

Events

Other notable items detected

EVENT2026-06-25
Capital return / dividend cadence
Management has recently declared quarterly dividends and the bank's capital actions (dividend level or buyback) are an active investor lever; the next dividend/capital update is a near-term event to watch via IR releases [#IR-undated][#PR-2026-03-06].
Prob 70.00% • Move 4.00% • Priced-in 60.00%

Short-term Catalysts

Next few weeks

Next quarterly results / 10-Q (monitor credit & NIM)
2026-06-25
Upcoming quarterly disclosure (next 10-Q / earnings 60–90 days) will reveal loan-loss provisioning and net interest margin trajectory after 2025FY results; material reserve build or NIM compression would be negative (monitor) [#8-K-2026-01-23][#10-Q-2025-10-27].
Prob 80% • Move -8% • Priced-in 50%

Long-term Catalysts

Months to a year

Mortgage banking & servicing portfolio scale supports revenue growth
2027-03-27
2025 10-K and March press summary report mortgage originations of $776M and servicing portfolio growth to $1.63B; continued servicing growth or accretive MSR gains could lift non-interest revenue and fee margin over the next year [#10-K-2026-03-06][#PR-2026-03-06].
Prob 60% • Move 25% • Priced-in 30%

Risks

Elevated credit losses or reserve builds
NIM compression from funding-cost pressure
Slower-than-expected mortgage servicing cashflows or MSR valuation weakness

Peers

Symbol	Summary
EGBN	Regional bank with comparable market cap and focus on commercial lending; useful deposit/loan mix comparator.
BCAL	California BanCorp: similar regional franchise exposure and sensitivity to local CRE/residential markets.
WASH	Washington Trust Bancorp: regional bank with stable dividend history and mortgage servicing exposure.

Sources

Internal and external references used in this analysis

Model source: RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Human targets: serper
Targets query: Northrim BanCorp Inc Common (NRIM) analyst consensus price target high low average
Analysis date: 2026-03-27

AI Stock Memo: NRIM - Northrim BanCorp - RankAlpha