B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$40.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-07-30 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
GCBC
Greene County BancorpCNasdaq / Banks
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
Record earnings, strong loan and deposit scale, higher net interest margin, and a prior repurchase authorization support a durable community-bank compounding thesis. [#SEC-8K-2026-07-23]
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -1.7.
What can break
A director reported a 10,000-share open-market sale; this does not establish an operating trend. [#SEC-FORM4-2026-06-15]
Momentum
88
Value
54
Sentiment
60
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $34.00 · Bull $40.00 · Bear $27.00Analysis 2026-07-30; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-07-30 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-09
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-09
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-09. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Why
Momentum88 · Δ7d -4.6
Value54 · Δ7d -0.0
Sentiment60 · Δ7d -1.7
So what
Balanced signals (Net Neutral). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.
Confirming evidence
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -1.7.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • A director reported a 10,000-share open-market sale; this does not establish an operating trend. [#SEC-FORM4-2026-06-15]
- • Deposit pricing and funding competition could pressure net interest margin.
- • The results may already be reflected in the price, while low coverage leaves limited confirmation of forward estimates.
Catalyst clock
2026-07-23
Record FY2026 earnings provide a positive operating reset
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
88
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-4.6
Δ21d
-
Value
54
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.0
Δ21d
-4.6
Sentiment
60
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-1.7
Δ21d
-
Why this grade
Composite grade C. Momentum 87.8 / Value 54.4 / Sentiment 59.8
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-07-30. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$34.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-07-30 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$27.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-07-30 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$583.12M
Beta
0.39
Shares Out
17.03M
P/E (TTM)
11.3
P/S (TTM)
4.75
P/FCF (TTM)
13.52
Rev YoY
+8.0%
EPS YoY
+21.5%
Gross Margin
-
Op Margin
+32.1%
Net Debt
$142.84M
Current Ratio
0.63
As of 2026-09-09 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data