AI Stock Memo: FOXA - Fox - RankAlpha

FOXA

TentativeAI MemoPost-earnings T+3

Fox

As of 2026-05-14/Post-earnings T+3/Confidence medium

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Data freshness

AI Memo

As of 2026-05-14 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex

Decision Panel

Action, confidence, horizon, and decision blockers at a glance.

Report quality notice

peer set is too generic or lacks enough direct operating comparators

Action

—

Confidence

medium

Horizon

—

Key catalyst

Q3 FY2026 print beat the setup despite the Super Bowl lapse • 2026-05-11

Expected move: +7%

Biggest risk

The revision signal remains incomplete in the packet, so missing or thin analyst follow-through should not be treated as positive evidence. Revenue still fell year over year, advertising still faced a major event comp, and some EBITDA upside came from lower rights amortization and production costs rather than a clean acceleration in underlying top-line growth.

Invalidation

Break below $58 or thesis failure.

What would change my mind?

The post-print interpretation improved because the quarter beat the setup even with a difficult Super Bowl comparison and the packet's target summary still sits above the $66.47 anchor. The strongest support is company-reported EBITDA, EPS, Tubi-led digital growth and distribution growth rather than a fully documented broad analyst-revision wave.

Research note

Recommendation

—

Confidence

medium

As of

2026-05-14

Base target

$70

p=50%

Bull target

$76

p=30%

Bear target

$58

p=20%

Key bullets

Fast scan of bull, bear, and watch items

BullKey bullets

Large remaining buyback authorization can support the stock, but pacing matters
The post-print interpretation improved because the quarter beat the setup even with a difficult Super Bowl comparison and the packet's target summary still sits above the $66.47 anchor.
The strongest support is company-reported EBITDA, EPS, Tubi-led digital growth and distribution growth rather than a fully documented broad analyst-revision wave.

BearKey bullets

Advertising revenue fell year over year because the prior-year quarter included Super Bowl LIX, showing how dependent comparisons remain on major event timing.
Cash and cash equivalents fell to $3.60 billion as of March 31, 2026 while borrowings stayed around $6.61 billion, which may temper buyback pace if operating conditions soften.
Fox One launch costs are now entering the expense base, adding execution risk around direct-to-consumer monetization.

WatchKey bullets

Q3 FY2026 print beat the setup despite the Super Bowl lapse

Summary

High-level snapshot

Recommendation

Model confidence

medium

Timeframe

Asset

Equity

Trigger

Post-earnings T+3

Base case: $70 (p=50%)

Bull/Bear spread: +16% / -12%

Vs latest close: Bull +16% · Base +7% · Bear -12%

Scenario probabilities

Bull Target: $76 (p=30%)Base Target: $70 (p=50%)Bear Target: $58 (p=20%)

Commentary

Post-earnings headline tone is positive, with trusted coverage describing a beat on revenue and profit and reporting shares rose more than 3% immediately after the release. The May 13, 2026 anchor at $66.47 suggests a meaningful portion of the surprise was already absorbed within two sessions. Direct peer context is now better anchored to Fox's disclosed competitors in sports, broadcast and streaming, but analyst-revision evidence remains incomplete, so this remains a cautious T+3 post-earnings monitoring memo rather than a high-conviction rerating call.

As of 2026-05-14 • Updated bi-weekly / post-earningsSource: Internal modelMethodology

Analyst Summary

Thesis highlights from the latest analysis

Bull Case

Bear Case

Drivers

Scannable catalysts and supporting factors

Large remaining buyback authorization can support the stock, but pacing matters

Scenarios

Bull Target (Scenario probability)

$76 / p=30% prob

Base Target (Scenario probability)

$70 / p=50% prob

Bear Target (Scenario probability)

$58 / p=20% prob

Price $66 as of 2026-06-02

Nearest Scenario: Base (∆ 7%)

Targets vs latest close: Bull +16% · Base +7% · Bear -12%

Sentiment & Exposure

News Sentiment (30d)

0.62

Social Sentiment (7d)

0.00

Events

Other notable items detected

EVENT2026-05-11
Q3 FY2026 print beat the setup despite the Super Bowl lapse
Fox reported Q3 FY2026 revenue of $3.99 billion, adjusted EBITDA of $954 million and adjusted EPS of $1.32, with distribution up 3%, Tubi-led digital growth and lower sports amortization helping offset the absence of the prior-year Super Bowl; Reuters also characterized the quarter as ahead of Wall Street revenue and profit expectations. [#8-K-2026-05-11]
Prob 80.00% • Move 6.00% • Priced-in 70.00%
EVENT2026-06-15
June-July World Cup and election-cycle ad setup are the next demand checkpoints
Management explicitly pointed to the FIFA Men's World Cup in North America across June and July, while post-earnings coverage said management sounded constructive on the upfront market and expected strong political advertising benefits for local stations in battleground states; that creates a near-term read-through on whether live sports and news demand can extend beyond the earnings beat. [#8-K-2026-05-11]
Prob 65.00% • Move 7.00% • Priced-in 45.00%

Short-term Catalysts

Next few weeks

No short-term catalysts

Long-term Catalysts

Months to a year

Large remaining buyback authorization can support the stock, but pacing matters
2026-09-30
Fox disclosed roughly $3.5 billion of remaining repurchase authorization as of March 31, 2026, after cumulative buybacks of about $8.5 billion, but only about $100 million was repurchased during the quarter and cash fell to $3.60 billion from $5.35 billion at June 30, 2025, so capital-return support is real but should not be overstated. [#8-K-2026-05-11] [#10-Q-2026-05-11]
Prob 60% • Move 5% • Priced-in 55%

Risks

Advertising revenue fell year over year because the prior-year quarter included Super Bowl LIX, showing how dependent comparisons remain on major event timing.
Cash and cash equivalents fell to $3.60 billion as of March 31, 2026 while borrowings stayed around $6.61 billion, which may temper buyback pace if operating conditions soften.
Fox One launch costs are now entering the expense base, adding execution risk around direct-to-consumer monetization.
Net subscriber declines continued to pressure parts of distribution revenue, limiting how much contractual price increases can carry the model.
Sports programming rights amortization remains a swing factor; lower amortization helped Television this quarter, but higher amortization pressured Cable Network Programming.

Peers

Symbol	Summary
DIS	More direct operating comparator than the packet's same-sector market-cap peers because Disney's ESPN and ESPN2 compete with FS1, FS2 and Big Ten Network for sports programming rights, distribution, audiences and advertisers. Fox's 10-K also frames direct-to-consumer services such as ESPN+ as part of the competitive set, making Disney a relevant read-through for sports-rights inflation and live-sports monetization. [#10-K-2025-08-06]
CMCSA	Direct operating comparator through NBC, USA Network and Peacock, which Fox identifies among competitors for sports programming rights, distribution, audiences and advertisers. Comcast is also relevant for broadcast and streaming ad demand, though its cable and broadband exposure makes it an imperfect pure-play media comp. [#10-K-2025-08-06]

Sources

Internal and external references used in this analysis

Model source: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Human targets: serper
Analysis date: 2026-05-14