NXST

Rating neutralAI Memo

Nexstar Media Group

As of 2026-04-15/Confidence high

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Data freshness

AI Memo

As of 2026-04-15 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex

Decision Panel

Action, confidence, horizon, and decision blockers at a glance.

Action

neutral

Confidence

high

Horizon

—

Key catalyst

May 7 Q1 report is the next hard read on 2026 execution • 2026-05-07

Expected move: +15%

Biggest risk

The stock remains constrained by a debt-heavy capital structure, new higher-coupon financing tied to TEGNA, exposure to MVPD subscriber attrition and advertising softness, plus fresh legal and integration noise around the TEGNA transaction that can delay a clean rerating.

Invalidation

Break below $155 or thesis failure.

What would change my mind?

Nexstar still has a sizable cash-generating local broadcast base, 2026 standalone EBITDA guidance of $1.95 billion to $2.05 billion, completed distribution renewals, and evidence that The CW losses improved in 2025, so clean execution could reopen upside from a depressed event-driven multiple. [#PR-2026-02-26]

Research note

Recommendation

neutral

Confidence

high

As of

2026-04-15

Base target

$205

p=45%

Bull target

$245

p=25%

Bear target

$155

p=30%

Key bullets

Fast scan of bull, bear, and watch items

BullKey bullets

March financing package removes near-term refinancing ambiguity but raises coupon drag
Guidance hold plus CW and distribution execution could support a steadier de-levering case
Nexstar still has a sizable cash-generating local broadcast base, 2026 standalone EBITDA guidance of $1.95 billion to $2.05 billion, completed distribution renewals, and evidence that The CW losses improved in 2025, so clean execution could reopen upside from a depressed event-driven multiple.

BearKey bullets

Higher interest burden from newly priced notes may offset some benefits from extending maturities.
Local and national advertising softness outside political windows can pressure EBITDA conversion.
Political-cycle benefits may be partly offset if underlying non-political trends weaken.

WatchKey bullets

May 7 Q1 report is the next hard read on 2026 execution

Summary

High-level snapshot

Recommendation

neutral

Model confidence

high

Timeframe

Asset

Equity

Trigger

Base case: $205 (p=45%)

Bull/Bear spread: +37% / -13%

Vs latest close: Bull +37% · Base +15% · Bear -13%

Scenario probabilities

Bull Target: $245 (p=25%)Base Target: $205 (p=45%)Bear Target: $155 (p=30%)

Commentary

Neutral-to-cautious. Primary-source evidence supports a still-profitable core franchise and clear near-term reporting catalyst, but the current thesis is dominated by financing absorption and transaction uncertainty rather than a clean operating rerating.

As of 2026-04-15 • Updated bi-weekly / post-earningsSource: Internal modelMethodology

Analyst Summary

Thesis highlights from the latest analysis

Bull Case

Bear Case

Drivers

Scannable catalysts and supporting factors

March financing package removes near-term refinancing ambiguity but raises coupon drag
Guidance hold plus CW and distribution execution could support a steadier de-levering case

Scenarios

Bull Target (Scenario probability)

$245 / p=25% prob

Base Target (Scenario probability)

$205 / p=45% prob

Bear Target (Scenario probability)

$155 / p=30% prob

Price $178 as of 2026-05-29

Nearest Scenario: Bear (∆ 13%)

Targets vs latest close: Bull +37% · Base +15% · Bear -13%

Sentiment & Exposure

Sentiment unavailable: insufficient coverage

Events

Other notable items detected

EVENT2026-05-07
May 7 Q1 report is the next hard read on 2026 execution
Nexstar said it will report 2026 first-quarter results on May 7, 2026, and the print should clarify whether standalone 2026 EBITDA guidance remains intact while management updates investors on distribution, advertising, leverage and any TEGNA-related integration constraints. [#PR-2026-04-09] [#PR-2026-02-26]
Prob 78.00% • Move 5.00% • Priced-in 62.00%

Short-term Catalysts

Next few weeks

March financing package removes near-term refinancing ambiguity but raises coupon drag
2026-05-07
Nexstar announced and priced $3.390 billion of secured notes due 2033 and $1.725 billion of senior notes due 2034 to repay bridge and other acquisition-related debt and address legacy notes, which helps term out the capital structure but also hardens a higher-rate burden that can cap rerating until cash flow absorption is demonstrated. [#PR-2026-03-20] [#PR-2026-03-23] [#8-K-2026-04-02]
Prob 72% • Move -3% • Priced-in 70%

Long-term Catalysts

Months to a year

Guidance hold plus CW and distribution execution could support a steadier de-levering case
2026-08-06
The February earnings release guided to 2026 standalone Adjusted EBITDA of $1.95 billion to $2.05 billion, noted completed 2025 distribution renewals, and highlighted lower CW losses plus audience growth; repeated delivery against those markers would help stabilize the equity story, but this remains a monitoring thesis until quarterly proof arrives. [#PR-2026-02-26]
Prob 58% • Move 9% • Priced-in 48%

Risks

Higher interest burden from newly priced notes may offset some benefits from extending maturities.
Local and national advertising softness outside political windows can pressure EBITDA conversion.
Political-cycle benefits may be partly offset if underlying non-political trends weaken.
Post-close TEGNA litigation and court-imposed integration limits could delay synergy realization or raise execution costs.
Retransmission economics remain vulnerable to ongoing MVPD subscriber attrition.

Peers

Symbol	Summary
SBGI	Sinclair is a direct local-broadcast peer with 185 television stations in 86 markets, overlapping with Nexstar in retransmission, local advertising and sports/news distribution.
GTN	Gray Media is a direct peer in local television and digital assets, with broad station scale and political-ad-cycle exposure similar to Nexstar's core station portfolio.
SSP	E.W. Scripps is smaller but still a relevant local-broadcast comparator given its large station base, national news assets and participation alongside Nexstar in ATSC 3.0 data monetization efforts.

Sources

Internal and external references used in this analysis

Model source: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Analysis date: 2026-04-15

AI Stock Memo: NXST - Nexstar Media Group - RankAlpha