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NXST

Nexstar Media GroupB
Nasdaq / Media & Entertainment
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
Record Q2 operating results, strong adjusted free cash flow, debt repayment, advertising tailwinds, and continued CW/NewsNation growth support a constructive medium-term view. Management also described strong second-half free-cash-flow positioning.
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +14.4.
What can break
Political advertising and FIFA World Cup-related advertising benefits may not repeat at the same level.
Momentum
18
Value
62
Sentiment
74
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $182.00 · Bull $195.00 · Bear $145.00Analysis 2026-09-09; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-09

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-09. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade B · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $252.71
Why
Momentum18 · Δ7d -9.6
Value62 · Δ7d +0.0
Sentiment74 · Δ7d +14.4
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.

Confirming evidence

  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +14.4.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Political advertising and FIFA World Cup-related advertising benefits may not repeat at the same level.
  • • Recent executive Form 4 activity includes multiple open-market sales, although the CEO also reported a prior open-market purchase; this is mixed activity rather than clear fundamental evidence. [#SEC-FORM4-2026-08-24]
  • • The bull case depends on TEGNA integration, advertising normalization after political and sports events, debt reduction, and resolution of acquisition litigation.

Catalyst clock

2026-12-31

Sustain strong second-half free cash flow

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
18
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-9.6
Δ21d
-27.7
Value
62
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.0
Δ21d
+0.7
Sentiment
74
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+14.4
Δ21d
+6.9
Why this grade

Composite grade B. Momentum 17.9 / Value 62.3 / Sentiment 73.7

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-09-09. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
30%
Probability
Target price
$195.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-09 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$182.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-09 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
20%
Probability
Target price
$145.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-09 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$5.69B
Beta
0.84
Shares Out
30.81M
P/E (TTM)
12.5
P/S (TTM)
1.24
P/FCF (TTM)
8.61
Rev YoY
+62.2%
EPS YoY
+20.0%
Gross Margin
+40.6%
Op Margin
+18.0%
Net Debt
$6.34B
Current Ratio
1.56
As of 2026-09-09 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data