FMX

AI Memo

Fomento Economico Mexicano SAB de CV

As of 2025-09-30/Confidence medium

Open ticker Back to Memos

Data freshness

AI Memo

As of 2025-09-30 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment AI

Decision Panel

Action, confidence, horizon, and decision blockers at a glance.

Action

—

Confidence

medium

Horizon

—

Key catalyst

Quarterly earnings release (FY2025 Q3) • 2025-10-28

Expected move: -92%

Biggest risk

Commodity/FX pressure and slower store productivity reduce margins and cash flows, forcing multiple compression.

Invalidation

Break below $8 or thesis failure.

What would change my mind?

STRONG execution on OXXO expansion and above-consensus beverage margins lift revenue and EPS, justifying premium multiple.

Research note

Recommendation

—

Confidence

medium

As of

2025-09-30

Base target

$10

p=50%

Bull target

$11

p=30%

Bear target

p=20%

Key bullets

Fast scan of bull, bear, and watch items

BullKey bullets

Commodity and FX pressure
Expansion of OXXO convenience-store footprint
STRONG execution on OXXO expansion and above-consensus beverage margins lift revenue and EPS, justifying premium multiple.

BearKey bullets

MXN depreciation vs USD; input-cost inflation; regulatory changes in Mexico; weaker-than-expected store-level sales
Commodity/FX pressure and slower store productivity reduce margins and cash flows, forcing multiple compression.

WatchKey bullets

Quarterly earnings release (FY2025 Q3)

Summary

High-level snapshot

Recommendation

Model confidence

medium

Timeframe

Asset

Equity

Trigger

Base case: $10 (p=50%)

Bull/Bear spread: -91% / -93%

Vs latest close: Bull -91% · Base -92% · Bear -93%

Scenario probabilities

Bull Target: $11 (p=30%)Base Target: $10 (p=50%)Bear Target: $8 (p=20%)

Commentary

Market tone is cautiously constructive: investors highlight OXXO's steady growth and FEMSA’s diversified beverage/retail mix but flag FX and commodity risks [#PR-2025-06-15, #10-Qp9]. Recent trading shows modest weakness into quarter-end ahead of earnings [#market].

As of 2025-09-30 • Updated bi-weekly / post-earningsSource: Internal modelMethodology

Analyst Summary

Thesis highlights from the latest analysis

Bull Case

STRONG execution on OXXO expansion and above-consensus beverage margins lift revenue and EPS, justifying premium multiple.

Bear Case

Commodity/FX pressure and slower store productivity reduce margins and cash flows, forcing multiple compression.

Drivers

Scannable catalysts and supporting factors

Commodity and FX pressure
Expansion of OXXO convenience-store footprint

Scenarios

Bull Target (Scenario probability)

$11 / p=30% prob

Base Target (Scenario probability)

$10 / p=50% prob

Bear Target (Scenario probability)

$8 / p=20% prob

Price $119 as of 2026-05-29

Nearest Scenario: Bull (∆ 91%)

Targets vs latest close: Bull -91% · Base -92% · Bear -93%

Sentiment & Exposure

Sentiment unavailable: insufficient coverage

Events

Other notable items detected

EVENT2025-10-28
Quarterly earnings release (FY2025 Q3)
Reported quarterly results could shift EPS guidance and working-capital outlook; watch volume and beverage/retail segment commentary [#10-Qp12].
Prob 80.00% • Move 6.00% • Priced-in 40.00%

Short-term Catalysts

Next few weeks

Commodity and FX pressure
2025-12-31
Rising input costs (beverage inputs) or adverse MXN/USD moves could compress margins and hurt comparable-store sales [#10-Qp9].
Prob 55% • Move -12% • Priced-in 50%

Long-term Catalysts

Months to a year

Expansion of OXXO convenience-store footprint
2026-09-30
Continued domestic store openings and international franchise growth may drive revenue and margin expansion over 12–24 months [#PR-2025-06-15].
Prob 65% • Move 20% • Priced-in 30%

Risks

MXN depreciation vs USD; input-cost inflation; regulatory changes in Mexico; weaker-than-expected store-level sales

Peers

Symbol	Summary
KO	Global beverage peer with stable margins and strong brand — comparable beverage dynamics and FX exposure.
PEP	Large beverage/food conglomerate; useful reference for supply-chain scale and pricing power.
WMT	Retail convenience and scale peer for mass retail operations and inventory management.

Sources

Internal and external references used in this analysis

Model source: RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Analysis date: 2025-09-30

AI Stock Memo: FMX - Fomento Economico Mexicano SAB de CV - RankAlpha