AI Stock Memo: CBAN - Colony Bankcorp - RankAlpha

CBAN

Rating buyAI Memo

Colony Bankcorp

As of 2026-01-16/Confidence medium

Open ticker Back to Memos

Data freshness

AI Memo

As of 2026-01-16 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment AI

Decision Panel

Action, confidence, horizon, and decision blockers at a glance.

Action

buy

Confidence

medium

Horizon

—

Key catalyst

Acquisition expected to close (regulatory approval required) • 2026-06-30

Expected move: -4%

Biggest risk

Acquisition execution issues, unexpected credit deterioration, or rising funding costs could compress multiples; downside is amplified if buybacks pause.

Invalidation

Break below $18 or thesis failure.

What would change my mind?

NIM expansion, continued buybacks, steady dividend history and accretive M&A could lift valuation to or above consensus high if execution and credit trends remain strong.

Research note

Recommendation

buy

Confidence

medium

As of

2026-01-16

Base target

$20

p=55%

Bull target

$22

p=25%

Bear target

$18

p=20%

Key bullets

Fast scan of bull, bear, and watch items

BullKey bullets

Share repurchase program execution
Quarterly cash dividend payable
NIM expansion, continued buybacks, steady dividend history and accretive M&A could lift valuation to or above consensus high if execution and credit trends remain strong.

BearKey bullets

Acquisition execution and regulatory approval risk
Credit loss or reserve build from localized loan deterioration
Interest-rate sensitivity and funding-cost pressure

WatchKey bullets

Acquisition expected to close (regulatory approval required)

Summary

High-level snapshot

Recommendation

buy

Model confidence

medium

Timeframe

Asset

Equity

Trigger

Base case: $20 (p=55%)

Bull/Bear spread: +6% / -13%

Vs latest close: Bull +6% · Base -4% · Bear -13%

Scenario probabilities

Bull Target: $22 (p=25%)Base Target: $20 (p=55%)Bear Target: $18 (p=20%)

Commentary

Filing tone is constructive: steady dividend policy, active repurchases and modest NIM gains cited in the 10‑Q [#10-Q-2025-09-30]. Market consensus tilts slightly positive (median ≈ $19.95; several outlets report highs near $21–22), supporting a mild upside base case; downside focus remains on acquisition execution and potential credit/reserve surprises.

As of 2026-01-16 • Updated bi-weekly / post-earningsSource: Internal modelMethodology

Analyst Summary

Thesis highlights from the latest analysis

Bull Case

NIM expansion, continued buybacks, steady dividend history and accretive M&A could lift valuation to or above consensus high if execution and credit trends remain strong.

Bear Case

Acquisition execution issues, unexpected credit deterioration, or rising funding costs could compress multiples; downside is amplified if buybacks pause.

Drivers

Scannable catalysts and supporting factors

Share repurchase program execution
Quarterly cash dividend payable

Human Analyst Targets

External snippets for comparison only; verify at source.

Unverified externalLast fetched 2026-01-16Source quality: external scrape

External snippets are unverified; treat as directional signals only. Always confirm with the original provider.

Inline RA est

Provider

serper

Median (USD)

$19.95

Range (USD)

$18.50 - $22.05

Count

Query: Colony Bankcorp Inc Common (CBAN) analyst consensus price target high low average

Colony Bankcorp (CBAN) Stock Forecast & Price Target
Search result #1
According to projections from 2 analysts, the average 12-month price target for Colony Bankcorp is 19.75, with a high estimate of 21 and a low estimate of ...
Open source
Colony Bankcorp (CBAN) Stock Forecast and Price Target 2026
Search result #2
According to the 1 analysts' twelve-month price targets for Colony Bankcorp, the average price target is $21.00. The highest price target for CBAN is $21.00, ...
Extracted: $21.00Open source
Consensus Colony Bankcorp, Inc. - CBAN - MarketScreener
Search result #3
Spread / Average Target. +22.75%. High Price Target. 21.00USD. Spread / Highest target. +30.52%. Low Price Target. 18.50USD. Spread / Lowest Target. +14.98% ...
Extracted: $21.00, $18.50Open source
CBAN Stock Analysis & Price Target - In-Depth Research - Financhill
Search result #4
According to the consensus of 2 analysts, Colony Bankcorp, Inc. has 9.91% upside to fair value with a price target of $19.75 per share. CBAN vs.
Extracted: $19.75Open source3 days ago
CBAN / Colony Bankcorp, Inc. (NYSE) - Forecast, Price Target ...
Search result #5
The average one-year price target for Colony Bankcorp, Inc. is $20.14. The forecasts range from a low of $18.68 to a high of $22.05. Read More. A stock's ...
Extracted: $20.14, $18.68, $22.05Open source
CBAN Stock Forecast 2026 - Colony Bank Price Targets & Predictions
Search result #6
Based on our analysis of 1 Wall Street analyst, CBAN has a neutral consensus with a median price target of $19.75 (ranging from $18.50 to $21.00). The overall ...
Extracted: $19.75, $18.50, $21.00Open source

Scenarios

Bull Target (Scenario probability)

$22 / p=25% prob

Base Target (Scenario probability)

$20 / p=55% prob

Bear Target (Scenario probability)

$18 / p=20% prob

Price $21 as of 2026-06-11

Nearest Scenario: Base (∆ 4%)

Targets vs latest close: Bull +6% · Base -4% · Bear -13%

Sentiment & Exposure

Sentiment unavailable: insufficient coverage

Events

Other notable items detected

EVENT2026-06-30
Acquisition expected to close (regulatory approval required)
Announced purchase agreement (filed as a subsequent event) targets closing by Q2 2026; regulatory and execution risk could materially affect valuation if delayed or amended [#10-Q-2025-09-30].
Prob 65.00% • Move 10.00% • Priced-in 30.00%

Short-term Catalysts

Next few weeks

Share repurchase program execution
2025-05-15
Board authorized repurchase up to 1,000,000 shares (200,000 repurchased by 9/30/2025); continued buybacks can support EPS and provide a valuation floor [#10-Q-2025-09-30].
Prob 75% • Move 3% • Priced-in 40%
Quarterly cash dividend payable
2025-09-15
Board declared $0.15 per share dividend (record/payable dates disclosed in 10-Q); continuity of quarterly payouts supports yield-sensitive demand [#10-Q-2025-09-30].
Prob 90% • Move 2% • Priced-in 60%

Long-term Catalysts

Months to a year

No long-term catalysts

Risks

Acquisition execution and regulatory approval risk
Credit loss or reserve build from localized loan deterioration
Interest-rate sensitivity and funding-cost pressure

Peers

Symbol	Summary
FNB	Larger regional bank with a similar community banking franchise; comparator for depositor stability and M&A multiples.
CCBG	Comparable community/regional footprint; offers perspective on small-acquisition execution risk and local lending trends.
SBCF	Regional bank with exposure to similar loan/CRE segments and interest-rate sensitivity; illustrative for capital and dividend policies.

Sources

Internal and external references used in this analysis

Model source: RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Human targets: serper
Targets query: Colony Bankcorp Inc Common (CBAN) analyst consensus price target high low average
Analysis date: 2026-01-16