CCBG

Rating neutralAI Memo

Capital City Bank Group

As of 2026-04-21/Confidence medium

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Data freshness

AI Memo

As of 2026-04-21 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex

Decision Panel

Action, confidence, horizon, and decision blockers at a glance.

Action

neutral

Confidence

medium

Horizon

—

Key catalyst

Next earnings print will test whether deposit growth can offset loan shrinkage and mild NIM pressure • 2026-07-31

Expected move: -2%

Biggest risk

The bear case is that the quarter still showed average loan contraction and slight NIM pressure, so earnings durability could fade if deposit growth does not translate into better asset growth or if funding and credit trends worsen; with the stock above the packet's median analyst target, valuation already reflects much of the steady-state story.

Invalidation

Break below $41 or thesis failure.

What would change my mind?

The bull case is that Q1 2026 confirmed a still-disciplined community bank model: deposits grew, credit stayed stable, expenses were controlled, and capital return continued, which can support a premium-to-book style trading range if those trends persist [#8-K-2026-04-20].

Research note

Recommendation

neutral

Confidence

medium

As of

2026-04-21

Base target

$46

p=50%

Bull target

$51

p=25%

Bear target

$41

p=25%

Key bullets

Fast scan of bull, bear, and watch items

BullKey bullets

Q1 2026 earnings reset is modestly supportive but likely mostly digested
Capital return provides support, but upside still depends on organic balance-sheet improvement
The bull case is that Q1 2026 confirmed a still-disciplined community bank model: deposits grew, credit stayed stable, expenses were controlled, and capital return continued, which can support a premium-to-book style trading range if those trends persist [#8-K-2026-04-20].

BearKey bullets

Capital return may cushion downside, but buybacks alone may not drive a rerating if organic growth remains muted.
Credit metrics are currently stable, but any reserve build or charge-off deterioration would matter disproportionately for a low-growth bank setup.
Loan balances continue to contract, limiting revenue growth even if deposit trends stay favorable.

WatchKey bullets

Next earnings print will test whether deposit growth can offset loan shrinkage and mild NIM pressure

Summary

High-level snapshot

Recommendation

neutral

Model confidence

medium

Timeframe

Asset

Equity

Trigger

Base case: $46 (p=50%)

Bull/Bear spread: +8% / -13%

Vs latest close: Bull +8% · Base -2% · Bear -13%

Scenario probabilities

Bull Target: $51 (p=25%)Base Target: $46 (p=50%)Bear Target: $41 (p=25%)

Commentary

This is a cautious monitoring memo, not a strong directional thesis. The primary-source context is solid and the April 20, 2026 earnings release was constructive, but the deterministic prior is neutral, evidence quality is only mid-level, catalyst density is moderate, and the balance of facts still points to a steady franchise rather than a clear inflection. For a low-coverage community bank trading slightly above the packet's median target, the most defensible stance is neutral with attention on whether deposit strength can translate into better loan and margin performance over the next reporting cycle.

As of 2026-04-21 • Updated bi-weekly / post-earningsSource: Internal modelMethodology

Analyst Summary

Thesis highlights from the latest analysis

Bull Case

Bear Case

Drivers

Scannable catalysts and supporting factors

Q1 2026 earnings reset is modestly supportive but likely mostly digested
Capital return provides support, but upside still depends on organic balance-sheet improvement

Scenarios

Bull Target (Scenario probability)

$51 / p=25% prob

Base Target (Scenario probability)

$46 / p=50% prob

Bear Target (Scenario probability)

$41 / p=25% prob

Price $47 as of 2026-06-12

Nearest Scenario: Base (∆ 2%)

Targets vs latest close: Bull +8% · Base -2% · Bear -13%

Sentiment & Exposure

Sentiment unavailable: insufficient coverage

Events

Other notable items detected

EVENT2026-07-31
Next earnings print will test whether deposit growth can offset loan shrinkage and mild NIM pressure
The key follow-through event is the next quarterly report: Q1 showed net interest margin down two basis points to 4.24%, average loans down 1.2% quarter over quarter, and deposit growth doing much of the balance-sheet work. A cleaner positive setup requires another quarter of core deposit growth, stable funding costs, and no credit deterioration rather than a one-quarter earnings beat alone [#8-K-2026-04-20].
Prob 55.00% • Move 5.00% • Priced-in 45.00%

Short-term Catalysts

Next few weeks

Q1 2026 earnings reset is modestly supportive but likely mostly digested
2026-04-20
CCBG's April 20, 2026 earnings release reported Q1 net income of $15.8 million, or $0.92 per diluted share, versus $13.7 million and $0.80 in Q4 2025, with end-of-period deposits up 2.4%, stable credit, and 63,088 shares repurchased; that combination supports a near-term read that core franchise trends remain steady, but the stock is already trading above the packet's median analyst target of $45.5, limiting rerating room after the print [#8-K-2026-04-20].
Prob 70% • Move 3% • Priced-in 75%

Long-term Catalysts

Months to a year

Capital return provides support, but upside still depends on organic balance-sheet improvement
2026-10-31
The 2025 10-K says the board authorized a five-year repurchase program for up to 750,000 shares effective February 1, 2024, and the company ended 2025 with strong capital while paying $1.00 per share in common dividends during the year; Q1 2026 buybacks and tangible book value growth help downside support, but sustained upside likely needs loan growth or better revenue mix, not capital return alone [#10-K-2026-02-27] [#8-K-2026-04-20].
Prob 60% • Move 4% • Priced-in 55%

Risks

Capital return may cushion downside, but buybacks alone may not drive a rerating if organic growth remains muted.
Credit metrics are currently stable, but any reserve build or charge-off deterioration would matter disproportionately for a low-growth bank setup.
Loan balances continue to contract, limiting revenue growth even if deposit trends stay favorable.
Low coverage and limited forward disclosures keep conviction modest despite solid primary-source context.
Net interest margin remains vulnerable to lower overnight rates and asset-mix pressure.

Peers

Symbol	Summary
CAC	Camden National is a direct small-cap bank peer from the candidate set with similar sector exposure and a closely comparable market cap, making it a cleaner valuation and operating benchmark than broad financials.
HTB	HomeTrust Bancshares is another similarly sized bank candidate and is useful as a peer for funding, credit, and community-bank earnings resilience rather than money-center style businesses.
HTBK	Heritage Commerce is a same-sector community bank peer in a similar market-cap band, appropriate for comparing deposit sensitivity and balance-sheet execution.
MPB	Mid Penn Bancorp is a direct bank peer by sector and size from the packet and fits better than diversified financial names when framing CCBG's operating setup.

Sources

Internal and external references used in this analysis

Model source: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Analysis date: 2026-04-21

AI Stock Memo: CCBG - Capital City Bank Group - RankAlpha