B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$51.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-04-21 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
CCBG
Capital City Bank GroupCNasdaq / Banks
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
The bull case is that Q1 2026 confirmed a still-disciplined community bank model: deposits grew, credit stayed stable, expenses were controlled, and capital return continued, which can support a premium-to-book style trading range if those trends persist [#8-K-2026-04-20].
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +4.2.
What can break
Capital return may cushion downside, but buybacks alone may not drive a rerating if organic growth remains muted.
Momentum
52
Value
61
Sentiment
56
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $46.00 · Bull $51.00 · Bear $41.00Analysis 2026-04-21; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-04-21 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-09
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-09
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-09. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $51.67
Why
Momentum52 · Δ7d +3.4
Value61 · Δ7d +7.4
Sentiment56 · Δ7d +4.2
So what
Balanced signals (Net Neutral). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.
Confirming evidence
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +4.2.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Capital return may cushion downside, but buybacks alone may not drive a rerating if organic growth remains muted.
- • Credit metrics are currently stable, but any reserve build or charge-off deterioration would matter disproportionately for a low-growth bank setup.
- • The bear case is that the quarter still showed average loan contraction and slight NIM pressure, so earnings durability could fade if deposit growth does not translate into better asset growth or if funding and credit trends worsen; with the stock above the packet's median analyst target, valuation already reflects much of the steady-state story.
Catalyst clock
2026-04-20
Q1 2026 earnings reset is modestly supportive but likely mostly digested
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
52
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+3.4
Δ21d
-11.4
Value
61
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+7.4
Δ21d
+7.4
Sentiment
56
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+4.2
Δ21d
+5.0
Why this grade
Composite grade C. Momentum 52.0 / Value 61.4 / Sentiment 56.0
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-04-21. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$46.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-04-21 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$41.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-04-21 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$889.38M
Beta
0.35
Shares Out
17.11M
P/E (TTM)
12.0
P/S (TTM)
2.91
P/FCF (TTM)
11.66
Rev YoY
+0.7%
EPS YoY
+8.0%
Gross Margin
-
Op Margin
+28.3%
Net Debt
$58.1M
Current Ratio
0.35
As of 2026-09-09 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data