AI Stock Memo: BVN - Compania de Minas Buenaventura SAA - RankAlpha

BVN

Rating sellAI Memo

Compania de Minas Buenaventura SAA

As of 2026-02-27/Confidence medium

Open ticker Back to Memos

Data freshness

AI Memo

As of 2026-02-27 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment AI

Decision Panel

Action, confidence, horizon, and decision blockers at a glance.

Action

sell

Confidence

medium

Horizon

—

Key catalyst

Analyst target revisions • 2026-05-28

Expected move: +11%

Biggest risk

If metals weaken or operations disappoint, consensus estimates would be cut and the ADR could trade materially below the anchor as future cash flows are repriced.

Invalidation

Break below $24 or thesis failure.

What would change my mind?

If metal prices recover and operations meet or exceed guidance, analysts would likely push targets toward the high end, narrowing perceived country and execution risk.

Research note

Recommendation

sell

Confidence

medium

As of

2026-02-27

Base target

$35

p=60%

Bull target

$42

p=20%

Bear target

$24

p=20%

Key bullets

Fast scan of bull, bear, and watch items

BullKey bullets

2025 results (quarterly/annual)
Commodity-cycle swing (gold/silver/copper)
If metal prices recover and operations meet or exceed guidance, analysts would likely push targets toward the high end, narrowing perceived country and execution risk.

BearKey bullets

Operational shortfalls or rising costs
Peru sovereign, regulatory, or permitting changes
Sustained decline in gold/silver/copper prices

WatchKey bullets

Analyst target revisions

Summary

High-level snapshot

Recommendation

sell

Model confidence

medium

Timeframe

Asset

Equity

Trigger

Base case: $35 (p=60%)

Bull/Bear spread: +35% / -23%

Vs latest close: Bull +35% · Base +11% · Bear -23%

Scenario probabilities

Bull Target: $42 (p=20%)Base Target: $35 (p=60%)Bear Target: $24 (p=20%)

Commentary

Market and analyst tone is mixed-to-cautious. Median sell-side target (34.59) sits below the anchor, implying limited upside. The wide analyst range (24.00–42.00) signals uncertainty around commodity direction and execution.

As of 2026-02-27 • Updated bi-weekly / post-earningsSource: Internal modelMethodology

Analyst Summary

Thesis highlights from the latest analysis

Bull Case

If metal prices recover and operations meet or exceed guidance, analysts would likely push targets toward the high end, narrowing perceived country and execution risk.

Bear Case

If metals weaken or operations disappoint, consensus estimates would be cut and the ADR could trade materially below the anchor as future cash flows are repriced.

Drivers

Scannable catalysts and supporting factors

2025 results (quarterly/annual)
Commodity-cycle swing (gold/silver/copper)

Human Analyst Targets

External snippets for comparison only; verify at source.

Unverified externalLast fetched 2026-02-27Source quality: external scrape

External snippets are unverified; treat as directional signals only. Always confirm with the original provider.

Inline RA est

Provider

serper

Median (USD)

$34.59

Range (USD)

$24.00 - $42.00

Count

Query: Compania de Minas Buenaventura SAA ADR (BVN) analyst consensus price target high low average

BVN | Compania de Minas Buenaventura S.A. ADR Analyst Estimates
Search result #1
Stock Price Targets. High, $42.00. Median, $30.00. Low, $24.00. Average, $30.76. Current Price, $38.26. Yearly Numbers. Estimates. BVN will report 2025 earnings ...
Extracted: $42.00, $30.00, $24.00, $30.76, $38.26Open source
Compañía de Minas Buenaventura SAA (BVN) - Yahoo Finance
Search result #2
Analyst Scotiabank. Rating Action Maintains. Rating Sector Perform. Price Action Lowers. Price Target 27.5 -> 27. View More. Statistics: BVN. View More ...
Open source
Compania de Minas Buenaventura SAA (BVN) Stock Forecast, Price ...
Search result #3
The average price target is $42.00 with a high forecast of $42.00 and a low forecast of $42.00. The average price target represents a 2.46% change from the last ...
Extracted: $42.00Open source
Compañía de Minas Buenaventura S.A.A.: Target Price Consensus ...
Search result #4
Number of Analysts. 6 ; Last Close Price. 38.41USD ; Average target price. 30.92USD ; Spread / Average Target. -19.51% ; High Price Target. 42.00USD.
Extracted: $38.41, $30.92, $42.00Open source
BVN | Compania de Minas Buenaventura S.A. ADR Analyst ... - WSJ
Search result #5
Stock Price Target BVN. High, $42.00. Median, $30.00. Low, $24.00. Average, $30.76. Current Price, $41.02. Related Links: Options · Overview · Research & ...
Extracted: $42.00, $30.00, $24.00, $30.76, $41.02Open source
Buenaventura (BVN) Price Targets - Zacks Investment Research
Search result #6
The forecasts range from a low of $24.00 to a high of $42.00. The average price target represents a decline of 20.57% from the last closing price of $41.13.
Extracted: $24.00, $42.00, $41.13Open source

Scenarios

Bull Target (Scenario probability)

$42 / p=20% prob

Base Target (Scenario probability)

$35 / p=60% prob

Bear Target (Scenario probability)

$24 / p=20% prob

Price $31 as of 2026-07-14

Nearest Scenario: Base (∆ 11%)

Targets vs latest close: Bull +35% · Base +11% · Bear -23%

Sentiment & Exposure

Sentiment unavailable: insufficient coverage

Events

Other notable items detected

EVENT2026-05-28
Analyst target revisions
Periodic consensus updates can compress or widen target spread; next visible revision window assumed by 2026-05-28.
Prob 40.00% • Move 8.00% • Priced-in 30.00%

Short-term Catalysts

Next few weeks

2025 results (quarterly/annual)
2026-05-28
Earnings release may reset guidance and analyst estimates; consensus implies downside versus the current anchor, so a beat or miss could amplify price moves. Assumed reporting by 2026-05-28.
Prob 55% • Move 15% • Priced-in 60%

Long-term Catalysts

Months to a year

Commodity-cycle swing (gold/silver/copper)
2027-02-27
Sustained metal-price moves over ~12 months would materially change cash flow and fair value, driving significant re-rating.
Prob 70% • Move 30% • Priced-in 50%

Risks

Operational shortfalls or rising costs
Peru sovereign, regulatory, or permitting changes
Sustained decline in gold/silver/copper prices

Peers

Symbol	Summary
NEM	Diversified gold producer — benchmark for scale, costs, and free-cash-flow generation.
SCCO	Large copper producer — useful comparator for Latin-American operating and sovereign risk.
FNV	Royalty/streaming model — contrasts leverage to metal prices and capital intensity.
GFI	Mid-tier gold miner — similar commodity sensitivity and margin dynamics for peer comparison.

Sources

Internal and external references used in this analysis

Model source: RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Human targets: serper
Targets query: Compania de Minas Buenaventura SAA ADR (BVN) analyst consensus price target high low average
Analysis date: 2026-02-27