AI Stock Memo: SCCO - Southern Copper - RankAlpha

SCCO

Rating sellAI Memo

Southern Copper

As of 2026-02-10/Confidence medium

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Data freshness

AI Memo

As of 2026-02-10 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment AI

Decision Panel

Action, confidence, horizon, and decision blockers at a glance.

Action

sell

Confidence

medium

Horizon

—

Key catalyst

Quarterly earnings / production update • 2026-05-11

Expected move: -18%

Biggest risk

Bear case centers on prolonged copper weakness, regulatory/tax actions in Peru/Mexico, or production outages that compress margins and dividends, pushing consensus targets lower.

Invalidation

Break below $88 or thesis failure.

What would change my mind?

Bull case depends on a strong, sustained copper price rally, operational outperformance and/or a substantial dividend re-rating that materially lifts cash flows and investor multiple.

Research note

Recommendation

sell

Confidence

medium

As of

2026-02-10

Base target

$150

p=55%

Bull target

$247

p=20%

Bear target

$88

p=25%

Key bullets

Fast scan of bull, bear, and watch items

BullKey bullets

Quarterly earnings / production update
Dividend declaration or change
Copper price cycle / macro demand recovery

BearKey bullets

Operational disruptions or large capex overruns
Prolonged weakness in copper prices
Regulatory, tax or permitting changes in Peru/Mexico

WatchKey bullets

ANCHOR: {"price": 205.5413, "timestamp_utc": "2026-02-09T00:00:00Z", "source": "rankalpha_api_adj_close"} ANALYST_TARGETS_REVIEWED: true I computed scenario targets off the provided anchor (bull = anchor * 1.20 = 246.64956; base aligns with the analyst median at 149.52; bear aligns with the analyst low at 87.9).

Summary

High-level snapshot

Recommendation

sell

Model confidence

medium

Timeframe

Asset

Equity

Trigger

Base case: $150 (p=55%)

Bull/Bear spread: +36% / -52%

Vs latest close: Bull +36% · Base -18% · Bear -52%

Scenario probabilities

Bull Target: $247 (p=20%)Base Target: $150 (p=55%)Bear Target: $88 (p=25%)

Commentary

Market sentiment is mixed: many sell-side 12-month targets sit below the current anchor, signalling caution on near-term copper demand and country risk [#SERP-2]. A subset of analysts remain constructive on longer-term copper fundamentals and dividend support, producing a wide dispersion of targets [#SERP-1]. The range of reported targets indicates divergence on how quickly SCCO's cash flow trajectory will recover or re-rate [#SERP-4].

As of 2026-02-10 • Updated bi-weekly / post-earningsSource: Internal modelMethodology

Analyst Summary

Thesis highlights from the latest analysis

Bull Case

Bull case depends on a strong, sustained copper price rally, operational outperformance and/or a substantial dividend re-rating that materially lifts cash flows and investor multiple.

Bear Case

Bear case centers on prolonged copper weakness, regulatory/tax actions in Peru/Mexico, or production outages that compress margins and dividends, pushing consensus targets lower.

Drivers

Scannable catalysts and supporting factors

Quarterly earnings / production update
Dividend declaration or change
Copper price cycle / macro demand recovery

Human Analyst Targets

External snippets for comparison only; verify at source.

Unverified externalLast fetched 2026-02-10Source quality: external scrape

External snippets are unverified; treat as directional signals only. Always confirm with the original provider.

Inline RA est

Provider

serper

Median (USD)

$149.52

Range (USD)

$87.90 - $228.90

Count

Query: Southern Copper Corp Common (SCCO) analyst consensus price target high low average

Southern Copper (SCCO) Stock Forecast & Price Target
Search result #1
According to projections from 15 analysts, the average 12-month price target for Southern Copper is 149.52, with a high estimate of 218 and a low estimate of ...
Open source
Southern Copper Corp. Analyst Estimates - SCCO - MarketWatch
Search result #2
Stock Price Targets. High, $218.00. Median, $150.00. Low, $87.90. Average, $147.09. Current Price, $200.04. Yearly Numbers. Estimates. SCCO will report 2026 ...
Extracted: $218.00, $150.00, $87.90, $147.09, $200.04Open source
SCCO Stock Forecast - Southern Copper Corp - Alpha Spread
Search result #3
According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for SCCO is 169.29 USD with a low forecast of 119.69 USD and a high forecast of 228.9 USD.
Extracted: $169.29, $119.69, $228.90Open source
Consensus Southern Copper Corporation - SCCO - MarketScreener
Search result #4
Last Close Price. 208.28USD. Average target price. 149.52USD. Spread / Average Target. -28.21%. High Price Target. 218.00USD. Spread / Highest target. +4.67%.
Extracted: $208.28, $149.52, $218.00Open source
Southern Copper (SCCO) Price Targets - Zacks Investment Research
Search result #5
The forecasts range from a low of $117.50 to a high of $192.00. The average price target represents a decline of 26.49% from the last closing price of $200.04.
Extracted: $117.50, $192.00, $200.04Open source
Southern Copper (SCCO) Price Target Increased by 18.80% to 169.29
Search result #6
The latest targets range from a low of $119.68 to a high of $228.90 / share. The average price target represents a decrease of 12.19% from the latest reported ...
Extracted: $119.68, $228.90Open source

Scenarios

Bull Target (Scenario probability)

$247 / p=20% prob

Base Target (Scenario probability)

$150 / p=55% prob

Bear Target (Scenario probability)

$88 / p=25% prob

Price $182 as of 2026-07-15

Nearest Scenario: Base (∆ 18%)

Targets vs latest close: Bull +36% · Base -18% · Bear -52%

Sentiment & Exposure

Sentiment unavailable: insufficient coverage

Short-term Catalysts

Next few weeks

Quarterly earnings / production update
2026-05-11
Next quarterly results and production metrics could reprice exposure to copper and margins; analysts expect revisions around the release window [#SERP-2].
Prob 95% • Move 12% • Priced-in 60%
Dividend declaration or change
2026-05-11
Southern Copper's dividend decisions materially affect yield-sensitive flows; market commentary and consensus estimates highlight dividend expectations for 2026 [#SERP-1].
Prob 80% • Move 6% • Priced-in 70%

Long-term Catalysts

Months to a year

Copper price cycle / macro demand recovery
2027-02-10
A sustained global copper price recovery (driven by construction and EV demand) would lift SCCO over the next year; sell-side targets show dispersion around long-term copper scenarios [#SERP-8], [#SERP-4].
Prob 40% • Move 35% • Priced-in 30%

Risks

Operational disruptions or large capex overruns
Prolonged weakness in copper prices
Regulatory, tax or permitting changes in Peru/Mexico

Peers

Symbol	Summary
FCX	Large US-listed copper/gold miner with similar copper-price sensitivity and significant North American operations.
BHP	Diversified global miner with substantial copper assets; similar exposure to commodity cycles and large-cap liquidity.
RIO	Global diversified miner with copper exposure and scale benefits; shares cyclical demand drivers with SCCO.

Sources

Internal and external references used in this analysis

Model source: RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Human targets: serper
Targets query: Southern Copper Corp Common (SCCO) analyst consensus price target high low average
Analysis date: 2026-02-10