BSRR

AI Memo

Sierra Bancorp

As of 2026-01-27/Confidence medium

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Data freshness

AI Memo

As of 2026-01-27 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment AI

Decision Panel

Action, confidence, horizon, and decision blockers at a glance.

Action

—

Confidence

medium

Horizon

—

Key catalyst

Quarterly dividend announcement / payout cadence • 2026-04-27

Expected move: -18%

Biggest risk

Bear case: weaker loan demand, margin compression, or deposit cost shocks depress earnings and force multiple compression toward regional-bank troughs, pushing price materially below current levels.

Invalidation

Break below $28 or thesis failure.

What would change my mind?

Bull case: steady NIM expansion and continued dividend support lead to multiple re-ratings toward the analyst high; deposit stability and modest loan growth validate higher multiple assumptions.

Research note

Recommendation

—

Confidence

medium

As of

2026-01-27

Base target

$34

p=60%

Bull target

$39

p=20%

Bear target

$28

p=20%

Key bullets

Fast scan of bull, bear, and watch items

BullKey bullets

Post-quarter analyst revisions and guidance updates
Loan growth and NIM recovery vs.
rate environment

BearKey bullets

Adverse loan-loss provisions or local CRE weakness
Deposit outflows and higher cost of funds
Net interest margin compression from rate shifts

WatchKey bullets

Quarterly dividend announcement / payout cadence

Summary

High-level snapshot

Recommendation

Model confidence

medium

Timeframe

Asset

Equity

Trigger

Base case: $34 (p=60%)

Bull/Bear spread: -7% / -33%

Vs latest close: Bull -7% · Base -18% · Bear -33%

Scenario probabilities

Bull Target: $39 (p=20%)Base Target: $34 (p=60%)Bear Target: $28 (p=20%)

Commentary

Market signals are mixed: consensus analyst median is near current market levels, producing a muted directional bias [#SERP-3]. Recent analyst notes show some downward target revisions but also dividend support, creating a neutral-to-cautious tone [#SERP-1][#SERP-2]. Investor focus remains on NIM trends and deposit resilience.

As of 2026-01-27 • Updated bi-weekly / post-earningsSource: Internal modelMethodology

Analyst Summary

Thesis highlights from the latest analysis

Bull Case

Bull case: steady NIM expansion and continued dividend support lead to multiple re-ratings toward the analyst high; deposit stability and modest loan growth validate higher multiple assumptions.

Bear Case

Bear case: weaker loan demand, margin compression, or deposit cost shocks depress earnings and force multiple compression toward regional-bank troughs, pushing price materially below current levels.

Drivers

Scannable catalysts and supporting factors

Post-quarter analyst revisions and guidance updates
Loan growth and NIM recovery vs. rate environment

Human Analyst Targets

External snippets for comparison only; verify at source.

Unverified externalLast fetched 2026-01-27Source quality: external scrape

External snippets are unverified; treat as directional signals only. Always confirm with the original provider.

Inline RA est

Provider

serper

Median (USD)

$34.40

Range (USD)

$23.00 - $39.00

Count

Query: Sierra Bancorp Common (BSRR) analyst consensus price target high low average

Sierra Bancorp: Target Price Consensus and Analysts ...
Search result #1
Keefe Bruyette & Woods Adjusts Sierra Bancorp Price Target to $29 From $23, Maintains Market Perform Rating · Sierra Bancorp Lifts Quarterly Dividend to $0.24 a ...
Extracted: $29.00, $23.00Open source
Sierra Bancorp (BSRR) Price Targets - Zacks Investment Research
Search result #2
The forecasts range from a low of $30.00 to a high of $39.00. The average price target represents a decline of 6.95% from the last closing price of $36.41.
Extracted: $30.00, $39.00, $36.41Open source
Sierra Bancorp Analyst Estimates - BSRR - MarketWatch
Search result #3
Sierra Bancorp ; Average Recommendation, Hold ; Average Target Price, 33.88 ; Number Of Ratings, 5 ; FY Report Date, 12/2025 ; Last Quarter's Earnings, 0.72.
Open source
Sierra Bancorp (BSRR) Stock Price, News, Quote & History
Search result #4
Find the latest Sierra Bancorp (BSRR) stock quote, history, news and other vital information to help you with your stock trading and investing.
Open source
Sierra Bancorp (BSRR) Stock Forecast: Analyst Ratings, Predictions ...
Search result #5
Financial analysts have set a price target of $34.50, indicating a 0.00% increase from the current stock price, but ratings and forecasts are frequently updated ...
Extracted: $34.50Open source
SIERRA BANCORP (BSRR) Stock, Price, News, Quotes ... - MSN
Search result #6
BSRR is rated "Hold" with a 12-month target price of $33.88, a ‎-3.31% downside from the current price of $35.04. See more. Strong SellSellHoldBuyStrong Buy.
Extracted: $33.88, $35.04Open source

Scenarios

Bull Target (Scenario probability)

$39 / p=20% prob

Base Target (Scenario probability)

$34 / p=60% prob

Bear Target (Scenario probability)

$28 / p=20% prob

Price $42 as of 2026-07-21

Nearest Scenario: Bull (∆ 7%)

Targets vs latest close: Bull -7% · Base -18% · Bear -33%

Sentiment & Exposure

Sentiment unavailable: insufficient coverage

Events

Other notable items detected

EVENT2026-04-27
Quarterly dividend announcement / payout cadence
Sierra has recently lifted its quarterly dividend; upcoming declarations or changes to payout policy remain a near-term liquidity/return signal (assumed next declaration window) [#SERP-1].
Prob 70.00% • Move 3.00% • Priced-in 50.00%

Short-term Catalysts

Next few weeks

Post-quarter analyst revisions and guidance updates
2026-04-27
Following FY2025 results and analyst note activity, expect further target/estimate revisions that can move the stock; watch analyst notes from Keefe Bruyette & Woods and consensus services [#SERP-1][#SERP-2].
Prob 60% • Move 6% • Priced-in 40%

Long-term Catalysts

Months to a year

Loan growth and NIM recovery vs. rate environment
2027-01-27
Medium-term earnings trajectory depends on regional loan demand and net interest margin stabilization as rates and deposit competition evolve; outcome material over the next year [#SERP-2].
Prob 55% • Move 15% • Priced-in 30%

Risks

Adverse loan-loss provisions or local CRE weakness
Deposit outflows and higher cost of funds
Net interest margin compression from rate shifts

Peers

Symbol	Summary
WAFD	Regional thrift with similar deposit-driven funding and local mortgage/consumer lending exposure; useful comparison for NIM trends.
SBCF	Regional community bank with comparable scale and sensitivity to local CRE and consumer lending cycles.
CZNC	Smaller regional bank used as a reference for asset quality and deposit-cost dynamics among community banks.

Sources

Internal and external references used in this analysis

Model source: RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Human targets: serper
Targets query: Sierra Bancorp Common (BSRR) analyst consensus price target high low average
Analysis date: 2026-01-27

AI Stock Memo: BSRR - Sierra Bancorp - RankAlpha