WAFD

AI Memo

WaFd

As of 2026-01-16/Confidence medium

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Data freshness

AI Memo

As of 2026-01-16 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment AI

Decision Panel

Action, confidence, horizon, and decision blockers at a glance.

Action

—

Confidence

medium

Horizon

—

Key catalyst

Analyst re‑ratings / dividend decision window • 2026-04-16

Expected move: -13%

Biggest risk

Prolonged NIM compression, rising loss provisions, or deposit outflows compress earnings and multiples, pushing shares roughly -15% below the anchor.

Invalidation

Break below $28 or thesis failure.

What would change my mind?

Sustained NIM expansion, contained credit costs, and modest multiple re-rating drive upside to roughly +15% above the anchor; execution on loan growth and capital returns validates the path.

Research note

Recommendation

—

Confidence

medium

As of

2026-01-16

Base target

$33

p=60%

Bull target

$38

p=20%

Bear target

$28

p=20%

Key bullets

Fast scan of bull, bear, and watch items

BullKey bullets

Q4 / FY results & guidance
Strategic execution & regional funding trends
Sustained NIM expansion, contained credit costs, and modest multiple re-rating drive upside to roughly +15% above the anchor; execution on loan growth and capital returns validates the path.

BearKey bullets

Deposit outflows or materially higher funding costs
Net interest margin compression
Rising credit losses in commercial or consumer portfolios

WatchKey bullets

Analyst re‑ratings / dividend decision window

Summary

High-level snapshot

Recommendation

Model confidence

medium

Timeframe

Asset

Equity

Trigger

Base case: $33 (p=60%)

Bull/Bear spread: -0% / -27%

Vs latest close: Bull -0% · Base -13% · Bear -27%

Scenario probabilities

Bull Target: $38 (p=20%)Base Target: $33 (p=60%)Bear Target: $28 (p=20%)

Commentary

Analyst and aggregator snapshots cluster targets in the low-$30s, producing a neutral-to-cautious consensus and limited near-term upside. Market focus remains on NIM and credit trends; conviction is low and event-driven volatility is the most likely catalyst for repricing.

As of 2026-01-16 • Updated bi-weekly / post-earningsSource: Internal modelMethodology

Analyst Summary

Thesis highlights from the latest analysis

Bull Case

Sustained NIM expansion, contained credit costs, and modest multiple re-rating drive upside to roughly +15% above the anchor; execution on loan growth and capital returns validates the path.

Bear Case

Prolonged NIM compression, rising loss provisions, or deposit outflows compress earnings and multiples, pushing shares roughly -15% below the anchor.

Drivers

Scannable catalysts and supporting factors

Q4 / FY results & guidance
Strategic execution & regional funding trends

Human Analyst Targets

External snippets for comparison only; verify at source.

Unverified externalLast fetched 2026-01-16Source quality: external scrape

External snippets are unverified; treat as directional signals only. Always confirm with the original provider.

Inline RA est

Provider

serper

Median (USD)

$33.00

Range (USD)

$31.00 - $127.82

Count

Query: WaFd Inc Common (WAFD) analyst consensus price target high low average

WaFd, Inc. (WAFD) Stock Price, News, Quote & History
Search result #1
Find the latest WaFd, Inc. (WAFD) stock quote, history, news and other vital information to help you with your stock trading and investing.
Open source
WaFd (WAFD) Stock Forecast and Price Target 2026 - MarketBeat
Search result #2
According to the 5 analysts' twelve-month price targets for WaFd, the average price target is $32.00. The highest price target for WAFD is $33.00, while the ...
Extracted: $32.00, $33.00Open source
What is the current Price Target and Forecast for WaFd, Inc. (WAFD)
Search result #3
The forecasts range from a low of $31.00 to a high of $34.00. The average price target represents an increase of 2.41% from the last closing price of $32.35.
Extracted: $31.00, $34.00, $32.35Open source
WaFd, Inc.: Target Price Consensus and Analysts Recommendations
Search result #4
Average target price. 33.12USD ; Spread / Average Target. +3.42% ; High Price Target. 34.00USD ; Spread / Highest target. +6.15% ; Low Price Target. 31.00USD.
Extracted: $33.12, $34.00, $31.00Open source
WaFd, Inc. (WAFD) Stock Price & Overview - Stock Analysis
Search result #5
Analyst Summary. According to 5 analysts, the average rating for WAFD stock is "Hold." The 12-month stock price target is $31.4, which is a decrease of -4.66 ...
Extracted: $31.40Open source
WAFD Stock Forecast: WaFd, Inc. Price Predictions for 2026
Search result #6
Based on our analysis of 7 Wall Street analysts, WAFD has a neutral consensus with a median price target of $33.75 (ranging from $31.00 to $34.00). The overall ...
Extracted: $33.75, $31.00, $34.00Open source

Scenarios

Bull Target (Scenario probability)

$38 / p=20% prob

Base Target (Scenario probability)

$33 / p=60% prob

Bear Target (Scenario probability)

$28 / p=20% prob

Price $38 as of 2026-07-17

Nearest Scenario: Bull (∆ 0%)

Targets vs latest close: Bull -0% · Base -13% · Bear -27%

Sentiment & Exposure

Sentiment unavailable: insufficient coverage

Events

Other notable items detected

EVENT2026-04-16
Analyst re‑ratings / dividend decision window
Broker repricing or a dividend action could shift consensus targets (published targets range ~31–34) and reposition investors; dated as a near-term reassessment window.
Prob 45.00% • Move 5.00% • Priced-in 50.00%

Short-term Catalysts

Next few weeks

Q4 / FY results & guidance
2026-04-16
Quarterly results and guidance that will move the stock via NIM and credit-cost commentary; date is an assumed window for near-term impact.
Prob 60% • Move 6% • Priced-in 40%

Long-term Catalysts

Months to a year

Strategic execution & regional funding trends
2027-01-16
Multi-quarter outcomes from branch strategy, M&A optionality, and persistent NIM trends that materially change earnings power.
Prob 30% • Move 20% • Priced-in 20%

Risks

Deposit outflows or materially higher funding costs
Net interest margin compression
Rising credit losses in commercial or consumer portfolios
Unplanned capital actions or dilution

Peers

Symbol	Summary
NWBI	Comparable regional footprint and sensitivity to local CRE and deposit flows; acts as a credit-cycle comparator.
ZION	Larger regional peer with overlapping interest-rate sensitivity; cross-check for margin and capital trends.

Sources

Internal and external references used in this analysis

Model source: RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Human targets: serper
Targets query: WaFd Inc Common (WAFD) analyst consensus price target high low average
Analysis date: 2026-01-16

AI Stock Memo: WAFD - WaFd - RankAlpha