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BSRR

Sierra BancorpD
Nasdaq / Banks
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
Bull case: steady NIM expansion and continued dividend support lead to multiple re-ratings toward the analyst high; deposit stability and modest loan growth validate higher multiple assumptions.
Posture
Defensive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +0.6.
What can break
Adverse loan-loss provisions or local CRE weakness
Momentum
44
Value
58
Sentiment
50
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $34.40 · Bull $39.00 · Bear $28.00Analysis 2026-01-27; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-10 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-01-27 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-10

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-10. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade D · Defensive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $43.00
Why
Momentum44 · Δ7d +3.6
Value58 · Δ7d -0.0
Sentiment50 · Δ7d +0.6
So what
Weak posture (Net Neutral). Prioritize risk control and patience.

Confirming evidence

  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +0.6.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Adverse loan-loss provisions or local CRE weakness
  • • Deposit outflows and higher cost of funds
  • • Bear case: weaker loan demand, margin compression, or deposit cost shocks depress earnings and force multiple compression toward regional-bank troughs, pushing price materially below current levels.

Catalyst clock

2026-04-27

Quarterly dividend announcement / payout cadence

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
44
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+3.6
Δ21d
-1.3
Value
58
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.0
Δ21d
-0.1
Sentiment
50
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.6
Δ21d
+0.5
Why this grade

Composite grade D. Momentum 44.2 / Value 57.6 / Sentiment 50.2

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-01-27. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
20%
Probability
Target price
$39.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-01-27 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Most likely
B
Base case
60%
Probability
Target price
$34.40
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-01-27 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
B-
Bear case
20%
Probability
Target price
$28.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-01-27 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$529.04M
Beta
0.79
Shares Out
12.96M
P/E (TTM)
11.6
P/S (TTM)
2.89
P/FCF (TTM)
16.63
Rev YoY
-3.5%
EPS YoY
-1.2%
Gross Margin
-
Op Margin
+29.7%
Net Debt
$447.64M
Current Ratio
0.07
As of 2026-09-10 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data