BLMN

AI Memo

Bloomin' Brands

As of 2026-05-29/Confidence medium

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Data freshness

AI Memo

As of 2026-05-29 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex

Decision Panel

Action, confidence, horizon, and decision blockers at a glance.

Action

—

Confidence

medium

Horizon

—

Key catalyst

Q1 2026 beat with guidance reaffirmed • 2026-05-06

Expected move: +4%

Biggest risk

Coverage is thin, the summarized median analyst target sits below the current anchor price, and the recovery still depends on traffic and execution staying intact through upcoming quarters.

Invalidation

Break below $7 or thesis failure.

What would change my mind?

The Q1 beat, reaffirmed FY2026 guidance, and improving Outback brand scores suggest the turnaround is still advancing, with margin stability giving the stock room for additional rerating if follow-through continues.

Research note

Recommendation

—

Confidence

medium

As of

2026-05-29

Base target

p=44%

Bull target

$10

p=28%

Bear target

p=28%

Key bullets

Fast scan of bull, bear, and watch items

BullKey bullets

Next quarterly update tests whether Q2 guide holds
Multi-quarter Outback turnaround and restaurant investment payoff
The Q1 beat, reaffirmed FY2026 guidance, and improving Outback brand scores suggest the turnaround is still advancing, with margin stability giving the stock room for additional rerating if follow-through continues.

BearKey bullets

Comparable sales and traffic improvements may prove uneven after the Q1 rebound.
Low analyst coverage and limited revision data leave the stock vulnerable to valuation giveback if the recovery slows.
Restaurant-level margins remain exposed to labor, commodity, and promotional pressure.

WatchKey bullets

Q1 2026 beat with guidance reaffirmed

Summary

High-level snapshot

Recommendation

Model confidence

medium

Timeframe

Asset

Equity

Trigger

Base case: $9 (p=44%)

Bull/Bear spread: +18% / -23%

Vs latest close: Bull +18% · Base +4% · Bear -23%

Scenario probabilities

Bull Target: $10 (p=28%)Base Target: $9 (p=44%)Bear Target: $7 (p=28%)

Commentary

Primary-source tone is constructive after the Q1 beat and guidance reaffirmation, and secondary headlines were positive, but analyst revision and target-change evidence remains thin. No usable social context was provided, so this remains a primary-source-led monitoring setup rather than a high-conviction rerating call.

As of 2026-05-29 • Updated bi-weekly / post-earningsSource: Internal modelMethodology

Analyst Summary

Thesis highlights from the latest analysis

Bull Case

Bear Case

Coverage is thin, the summarized median analyst target sits below the current anchor price, and the recovery still depends on traffic and execution staying intact through upcoming quarters.

Drivers

Scannable catalysts and supporting factors

Next quarterly update tests whether Q2 guide holds
Multi-quarter Outback turnaround and restaurant investment payoff

Scenarios

Bull Target (Scenario probability)

$10 / p=28% prob

Base Target (Scenario probability)

$9 / p=44% prob

Bear Target (Scenario probability)

$7 / p=28% prob

Price $8 as of 2026-05-29

Nearest Scenario: Base (∆ 4%)

Targets vs latest close: Bull +18% · Base +4% · Bear -23%

Sentiment & Exposure

News Sentiment (30d)

0.60

Social Sentiment (7d)

0.00

Events

Other notable items detected

EVENT2026-05-06
Q1 2026 beat with guidance reaffirmed
Bloomin' Brands reported Q1 2026 diluted EPS of $0.64 and adjusted diluted EPS of $0.67 on revenue of about $1.06B, with restaurant-level margin at 14.0% and U.S. comparable sales up 0.9%; management reaffirmed full-year FY2026 guidance and said Outback brand scores continue to improve. [#8-K-2026-05-06]
Prob 74.00% • Move 7.00% • Priced-in 68.00%

Short-term Catalysts

Next few weeks

Next quarterly update tests whether Q2 guide holds
2026-08-05
The near-term setup is whether the company can deliver to its Q2 2026 outlook of U.S. comparable restaurant sales up 1% to 2% and adjusted diluted EPS of $0.27 to $0.32; a miss here would undercut the post-beat recovery narrative. [#8-K-2026-05-06]
Prob 59% • Move 5% • Priced-in 35%

Long-term Catalysts

Months to a year

Multi-quarter Outback turnaround and restaurant investment payoff
2026-12-31
If pricing, cost savings, productivity, and equipment upgrades keep supporting guest scores and margins, Bloomin' Brands could earn a longer rerating; if traffic or execution fade, the turnaround case loses force. [#8-K-2026-05-06] [#10-Q-2026-05-07]
Prob 54% • Move 9% • Priced-in 30%

Risks

Comparable sales and traffic improvements may prove uneven after the Q1 rebound.
Low analyst coverage and limited revision data leave the stock vulnerable to valuation giveback if the recovery slows.
Restaurant-level margins remain exposed to labor, commodity, and promotional pressure.
The Outback turnaround still needs sustained execution; a stall would weaken the rerating case.

Peers

Symbol	Summary
CBRL	Closest broad casual-dining read-through for traffic sensitivity, value-conscious demand, and labor/commodity pressure; useful for checking whether Bloomin's recovery is company-specific or category-wide.
FWRG	Execution and unit-economics comparator in restaurant consumer services; helpful for gauging whether traffic and margin trends are supportive across casual dining.

Sources

Internal and external references used in this analysis

Model source: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Analysis date: 2026-05-29

AI Stock Memo: BLMN - Bloomin' Brands - RankAlpha