B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$8.80
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-06-18 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
BLMN
Bloomin' BrandsCNasdaq / Consumer Services
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
The bull case is that Q1 showed the turnaround has early traction: revenue grew 1.0%, combined U.S. comparable sales were positive, restaurant-level margin improved, and management reaffirmed full-year guidance while citing better Outback brand scores.
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Value
What changed
Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +0.3.
What can break
Adjusted operating margin declined to 5.9% from 6.1% even with cost-saving actions, showing that pricing and productivity gains are still being offset by inflationary labor, commodity, and operating costs. [#SEC-8K-2026-05-06]
Momentum
86
Value
64
Sentiment
37
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $7.40 · Bull $8.80 · Bear $6.00Analysis 2026-06-18; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-27 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-27 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-06-18 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-10-27
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-27
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-27. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $11.81
Why
Momentum86 · Δ7d +12.5
Value64 · Δ7d +0.3
Sentiment37 · Δ7d +6.2
So what
Balanced signals (Net Neutral). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.
Confirming evidence
- • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +0.3.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Adjusted operating margin declined to 5.9% from 6.1% even with cost-saving actions, showing that pricing and productivity gains are still being offset by inflationary labor, commodity, and operating costs. [#SEC-8K-2026-05-06]
- • Higher impairment and closing costs remain part of the backdrop after 2025 Bonefish goodwill impairment and underperforming restaurant closures, which keeps execution risk elevated if the turnaround stalls. [#SEC-8K-2026-02-25]
- • The bear case is that the evidence is still early and uneven: Outback U.S.
Catalyst clock
2026-05-06
Q1 earnings beat with reaffirmed full-year outlook
Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
86
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+12.5
Δ21d
+63.4
Value
64
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.3
Δ21d
-0.8
Sentiment
37
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+6.2
Δ21d
-16.3
Why this grade
Composite grade C. Momentum 85.7 / Value 64.2 / Sentiment 37.2
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-06-18. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
45%
Probability
Target price
$7.40
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-06-18 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
30%
Probability
Target price
$6.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-06-18 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-10-27
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-27
Market Cap
$777.44M
Beta
1.14
Shares Out
85.62M
P/E (TTM)
31.5
P/S (TTM)
0.15
P/FCF (TTM)
7.65
Rev YoY
+1.3%
EPS YoY
+30.3%
Gross Margin
+8.8%
Op Margin
+3.0%
Net Debt
$1.96B
Current Ratio
0.24
As of 2026-10-27 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data