B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$8.80
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-06-18 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
BLMN
Bloomin' BrandsCNasdaq / Consumer Services
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
The bull case is that Q1 showed the turnaround has early traction: revenue grew 1.0%, combined U.S. comparable sales were positive, restaurant-level margin improved, and management reaffirmed full-year guidance while citing better Outback brand scores.
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +11.0.
What can break
Adjusted operating margin declined to 5.9% from 6.1% even with cost-saving actions, showing that pricing and productivity gains are still being offset by inflationary labor, commodity, and operating costs. [#SEC-8K-2026-05-06]
Momentum
91
Value
64
Sentiment
43
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $7.40 · Bull $8.80 · Bear $6.00Analysis 2026-06-18; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-10 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-06-18 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-10
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-10
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-10. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $11.76
Why
Momentum91 · Δ7d +2.1
Value64 · Δ7d +0.0
Sentiment43 · Δ7d +11.0
So what
Balanced signals (Net Neutral). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.
Confirming evidence
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +11.0.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Adjusted operating margin declined to 5.9% from 6.1% even with cost-saving actions, showing that pricing and productivity gains are still being offset by inflationary labor, commodity, and operating costs. [#SEC-8K-2026-05-06]
- • Higher impairment and closing costs remain part of the backdrop after 2025 Bonefish goodwill impairment and underperforming restaurant closures, which keeps execution risk elevated if the turnaround stalls. [#SEC-8K-2026-02-25]
- • The bear case is that the evidence is still early and uneven: Outback U.S.
Catalyst clock
2026-05-06
Q1 earnings beat with reaffirmed full-year outlook
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
91
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+2.1
Δ21d
-3.6
Value
64
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.0
Δ21d
-0.6
Sentiment
43
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+11.0
Δ21d
+15.7
Why this grade
Composite grade C. Momentum 91.2 / Value 64.3 / Sentiment 43.4
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-06-18. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
45%
Probability
Target price
$7.40
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-06-18 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
30%
Probability
Target price
$6.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-06-18 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$915.29M
Beta
1.14
Shares Out
85.62M
P/E (TTM)
31.5
P/S (TTM)
0.15
P/FCF (TTM)
7.65
Rev YoY
+1.3%
EPS YoY
+30.3%
Gross Margin
+8.8%
Op Margin
+3.0%
Net Debt
$1.96B
Current Ratio
0.24
As of 2026-09-10 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data