BAH

Rating neutralAI MemoPost-earnings T+3

Booz Allen Hamilton

As of 2026-05-25/Post-earnings T+3/Confidence medium

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Data freshness

AI Memo

As of 2026-05-25 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex

Decision Panel

Action, confidence, horizon, and decision blockers at a glance.

Action

neutral

Confidence

medium

Horizon

—

Key catalyst

Q4 FY26 EPS beat offsets revenue miss • 2026-05-22

Expected move: +26%

Biggest risk

Revenue still fell 6.4% in FY26, quarterly book-to-bill was only 0.9x, and management expects civil business declines to persist, so the top-line inflection may lag the EPS rebound.

Invalidation

Break below $68 or thesis failure.

What would change my mind?

FY27 guidance implies stabilization after a difficult FY26, and backlog near $38B plus improving national-security demand can support margin leverage if civil declines moderate.

Research note

Recommendation

neutral

Confidence

medium

As of

2026-05-25

Base target

$100

p=50%

Bull target

$118

p=25%

Bear target

$68

p=25%

Key bullets

Fast scan of bull, bear, and watch items

BullKey bullets

Post-print reaction is constructive but not decisive
Record backlog and national-security mix support the FY27 bridge
FY27 guidance implies stabilization after a difficult FY26, and backlog near $38B plus improving national-security demand can support margin leverage if civil declines moderate.

BearKey bullets

Civil business declines are expected to continue, limiting near-term top-line visibility.
FY26 revenue declined 6.4% even as margins improved, which keeps the recovery narrative fragile.
Government-contract concentration and procurement timing remain structural risks; if civil demand stays soft, backlog conversion can lag even with strong profitability.

WatchKey bullets

Q4 FY26 EPS beat offsets revenue miss

Summary

High-level snapshot

Recommendation

neutral

Model confidence

medium

Timeframe

Asset

Equity

Trigger

Post-earnings T+3

Base case: $100 (p=50%)

Bull/Bear spread: +49% / -14%

Vs latest close: Bull +49% · Base +26% · Bear -14%

Scenario probabilities

Bull Target: $118 (p=25%)Base Target: $100 (p=50%)Bear Target: $68 (p=25%)

Commentary

Post-print tape was supportive, but this remains a monitoring view: the EPS beat and FY27 guide helped sentiment, while the revenue miss, 0.9x book-to-bill, and expected Civil declines keep conviction moderate. The analyst backdrop is mixed-to-cautious, with limited post-print target work and no broad upgrade wave.

As of 2026-05-25 • Updated bi-weekly / post-earningsSource: Internal modelMethodology

Analyst Summary

Thesis highlights from the latest analysis

Bull Case

FY27 guidance implies stabilization after a difficult FY26, and backlog near $38B plus improving national-security demand can support margin leverage if civil declines moderate.

Bear Case

Revenue still fell 6.4% in FY26, quarterly book-to-bill was only 0.9x, and management expects civil business declines to persist, so the top-line inflection may lag the EPS rebound.

Drivers

Scannable catalysts and supporting factors

Post-print reaction is constructive but not decisive
Record backlog and national-security mix support the FY27 bridge

Scenarios

Bull Target (Scenario probability)

$118 / p=25% prob

Base Target (Scenario probability)

$100 / p=50% prob

Bear Target (Scenario probability)

$68 / p=25% prob

Price $79 as of 2026-05-29

Nearest Scenario: Bear (∆ 14%)

Targets vs latest close: Bull +49% · Base +26% · Bear -14%

Sentiment & Exposure

News Sentiment (30d)

0.18

Social Sentiment (7d)

0.00

Events

Other notable items detected

EVENT2026-05-22
Q4 FY26 EPS beat offsets revenue miss
Booz Allen reported Q4 revenue of $2.8B (-6.4% y/y) and adjusted diluted EPS of $1.78 (+10.6% y/y); follow-on coverage says EPS beat consensus ($1.34) while revenue missed ($2.87B). Management also guided FY27 adjusted EPS to $6.00-$6.35 and revenue to $11.2B-$11.7B. [#8-K-2026-05-22]
Prob 85.00% • Move 4.00% • Priced-in 65.00%

Short-term Catalysts

Next few weeks

Post-print reaction is constructive but not decisive
2026-05-23
Shares were reported up about 3.7% in premarket trading after the release, but the move is tempered by the revenue miss and ongoing civil weakness. Analyst follow-through remains thin, with Truist reiterating Hold/$85 and Jefferies already at $85 pre-print.
Prob 60% • Move 3% • Priced-in 70%

Long-term Catalysts

Months to a year

Record backlog and national-security mix support the FY27 bridge
2026-11-15
Management highlighted record backlog of $38B and a 1.1x trailing-twelve-month book-to-bill, with growth expected to continue in National Security even as external factors drive anticipated Civil declines. That improves the long-run setup, but the recovery remains uneven across portfolios. [#8-K-2026-05-22]
Prob 70% • Move 6% • Priced-in 50%

Risks

Civil business declines are expected to continue, limiting near-term top-line visibility.
FY26 revenue declined 6.4% even as margins improved, which keeps the recovery narrative fragile.
Government-contract concentration and procurement timing remain structural risks; if civil demand stays soft, backlog conversion can lag even with strong profitability. [#10-K-2026-05-22]
Quarterly book-to-bill was only 0.9x, so current bookings did not fully replace revenue.

Peers

Symbol	Summary
CACI	Closest peer in the provided set: similar U.S. government services exposure, so its backlog and margin cadence are a cleaner read-through on contract demand than software-heavy peers.
TTEK	Useful government/engineering comparator, though more water/environmental tilted; helps frame consulting backlog and execution trends but is less defense-heavy than BAH.

Sources

Internal and external references used in this analysis

Model source: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Human targets: serper
Analysis date: 2026-05-25

AI Stock Memo: BAH - Booz Allen Hamilton - RankAlpha