BAH

AI Memo

Booz Allen Hamilton

As of 2026-09-29/Confidence medium

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Data freshness

AI Memo

As of 2026-09-29 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex

Decision Panel

Action, confidence, horizon, and decision blockers at a glance.

Action

—

Confidence

medium

Horizon

—

Key catalyst

Fiscal Q2 results on October 23 • 2026-10-23

Base target: $71 / p=50% prob

Biggest risk

Fiscal Q1 revenue fell 4.2% and GAAP diluted EPS fell 24.5%; Civil demand remains challenged. Backlog does not establish timing, profitability or certainty of conversion, and acquisition integration adds execution risk. [#SEC-8K-2026-07-24]

Invalidation

Break below $49 or thesis failure.

What would change my mind?

Fiscal Q1 adjusted EBITDA rose 7.4%, adjusted EBITDA margin improved 130 basis points to 11.9%, and free cash flow reached $261 million despite lower revenue. A $39 billion backlog and the completed Ultra acquisition offer upside if awards convert profitably. [#SEC-8K-2026-07-24] [#IR-2026-08-24] https://investors.boozallen.com/node/20776

Research note

Recommendation

—

Confidence

medium

As of

2026-09-29

Base target

$71

p=50%

Bull target

$91

p=25%

Bear target

$49

p=25%

Key bullets

Fast scan of bull, bear, and watch items

BullKey bullets

Civil weakness could offset backlog strength
Ultra Mission Solutions integration
Fiscal Q1 adjusted EBITDA rose 7.4%, adjusted EBITDA margin improved 130 basis points to 11.9%, and free cash flow reached $261 million despite lower revenue.

BearKey bullets

Federal spending, procurement timing and contract concentration can affect awards and revenue recognition.
Fiscal 2027 guidance spans 0–4% revenue growth; backlog conversion and the timing of a return to growth remain uncertain.
[#SEC-8K-2026-07-24]

WatchKey bullets

Fiscal Q2 results on October 23

Summary

High-level snapshot

Recommendation

Model confidence

medium

Timeframe

Asset

Equity

Trigger

Base case: $71 (p=50%)

Target spread vs base: +28% / -31%

Scenario probabilities

Bull Target: $91 (p=25%)Base Target: $71 (p=50%)Bear Target: $49 (p=25%)

Commentary

The packet's recent-news rows concern Accenture rather than Booz Allen and do not establish BAH news tone. Social, options, short-interest and employee measures are unavailable; zeros above denote missing data, not neutral observations. No reliable post-release analyst revisions or market-reaction attribution were supplied. The deterministic prior is neutral with negligible modeled near-term returns, supporting monitoring rather than a directional call.

As of 2026-09-29 • Updated bi-weekly / post-earningsSource: Internal modelMethodology

Analyst Summary

Thesis highlights from the latest analysis

Bull Case

Bear Case

Drivers

Scannable catalysts and supporting factors

Civil weakness could offset backlog strength
Ultra Mission Solutions integration

Scenarios

Bull Target (Scenario probability)

$91 / p=25% prob

Base Target (Scenario probability)

$71 / p=50% prob

Bear Target (Scenario probability)

$49 / p=25% prob

Analysis 2026-09-29 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex

Analysis reference price unavailable. Targets are shown without scenario returns.

Sentiment & Exposure

News Sentiment (30d)

0.00

Social Sentiment (7d)

0.00

Events

Other notable items detected

EVENT2026-10-23
Fiscal Q2 results on October 23
Booz Allen has scheduled its fiscal Q2 2027 results call for October 23. The key test is whether National Security demand converts into revenue while Civil remains challenged; this is an outcome to monitor, not an assumed beat. [#SEC-8K-2026-07-24] https://investors.boozallen.com/news-releases/news-release-details/booz-allen-host-conference-call-discuss-second-quarter-fiscal
Prob 45.00% • Move 8.00% • Priced-in 30.00%

Short-term Catalysts

Next few weeks

Civil weakness could offset backlog strength
2026-10-23
Fiscal Q1 revenue fell 4.2% year over year despite $39 billion of backlog and a 1.5x book-to-bill ratio. The company's release said National Security demand was accelerating while Civil remained challenged; continued revenue contraction would pressure the thesis. [#SEC-8K-2026-07-24]
Prob 55% • Move -10% • Priced-in 45%

Long-term Catalysts

Months to a year

Ultra Mission Solutions integration
2027-03-31
The company completed its $720 million acquisition on August 24. Integration of its defense software, encryption and edge-compute products could broaden Booz Allen's defense-technology offering, but revenue and margin benefits are not yet demonstrated. [#8-K-2026-08-24] [#IR-2026-08-24] https://investors.boozallen.com/node/20776
Prob 55% • Move 7% • Priced-in 40%

Risks

Federal spending, procurement timing and contract concentration can affect awards and revenue recognition.
Fiscal 2027 guidance spans 0–4% revenue growth; backlog conversion and the timing of a return to growth remain uncertain. [#SEC-8K-2026-07-24]
Fiscal Q1 revenue contraction and persistent Civil weakness could outweigh stronger National Security demand. [#SEC-8K-2026-07-24]
The completed $720 million Ultra acquisition adds integration and capital-allocation risk; stated product synergies are not yet reported financial results. [#IR-2026-08-24] https://investors.boozallen.com/node/20776

Peers

Symbol	Summary
CACI	Closer federal technology and national-security services comparator than the packet's market-cap-matched commercial-services candidates; differences in contract mix limit direct multiple comparisons.
LDOS	Relevant federal defense and technology-services comparator, though its broader program mix limits direct comparison.
SAIC	Relevant federal IT and mission-services comparator; useful for demand and award trends, not a like-for-like valuation anchor.

Sources

Internal and external references used in this analysis

Model source: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Analysis date: 2026-09-29

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Symbol

Summary

CACI

Closer federal technology and national-security services comparator than the packet's market-cap-matched commercial-services candidates; differences in contract mix limit direct multiple comparisons.

LDOS

Relevant federal defense and technology-services comparator, though its broader program mix limits direct comparison.

SAIC

Relevant federal IT and mission-services comparator; useful for demand and award trends, not a like-for-like valuation anchor.