B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$91.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-29 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
BAH
Booz Allen HamiltonCNYSE / Commercial & Professional Services
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
Fiscal Q1 adjusted EBITDA rose 7.4%, adjusted EBITDA margin improved 130 basis points to 11.9%, and free cash flow reached $261 million despite lower revenue. A $39 billion backlog and the completed Ultra acquisition offer upside if awards convert profitably.
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Value
What changed
Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.6.
What can break
Federal spending, procurement timing and contract concentration can affect awards and revenue recognition.
Momentum
54
Value
63
Sentiment
45
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $71.00 · Bull $91.00 · Bear $49.00Analysis 2026-09-29; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-23 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-23 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-09-29 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-10-23
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-23
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-23. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $84.31
Why
Momentum54 · Δ7d +6.1
Value63 · Δ7d -0.6
Sentiment45 · Δ7d -4.2
So what
Balanced signals (Net Neutral). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.
Confirming evidence
- • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.6.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Federal spending, procurement timing and contract concentration can affect awards and revenue recognition.
- • Fiscal 2027 guidance spans 0–4% revenue growth; backlog conversion and the timing of a return to growth remain uncertain. [#SEC-8K-2026-07-24]
- • Fiscal Q1 revenue fell 4.2% and GAAP diluted EPS fell 24.5%; Civil demand remains challenged.
Catalyst clock
2026-10-23
Fiscal Q2 results on October 23
Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
54
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+6.1
Δ21d
-0.5
Value
63
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.6
Δ21d
-1.7
Sentiment
45
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-4.2
Δ21d
-25.4
Why this grade
Composite grade C. Momentum 54.2 / Value 63.5 / Sentiment 44.7
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-09-29. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$71.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-29 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$49.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-29 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-10-23
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-23
Market Cap
$9.42B
Beta
0.33
Shares Out
120.29M
P/E (TTM)
13.6
P/S (TTM)
0.93
P/FCF (TTM)
19.85
Rev YoY
-4.2%
EPS YoY
-24.5%
Gross Margin
+20.9%
Op Margin
+9.7%
Net Debt
$3.39B
Current Ratio
1.59
As of 2026-10-23 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data