AVBH

AI Memo

Avidbank

As of 2025-11-03/Confidence medium/Horizon 3m

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Data freshness

AI Memo

As of 2025-11-03 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment AI

Decision Panel

Action, confidence, horizon, and decision blockers at a glance.

Action

—

Confidence

medium

Horizon

Key catalyst

Quarterly earnings (near-term)

Expected move: -19%

Biggest risk

Reserve builds, deposit outflows, or margin compression reduce EPS and push the stock toward the bear target.

Invalidation

Break below $21 or thesis failure.

What would change my mind?

Loan growth, stable deposits, and modest NIM expansion lift EPS and justify a re-rating toward the bull target.

Research note

Recommendation

—

Confidence

medium

As of

2025-11-03

Base target

$26

p=55%

Bull target

$31

p=25%

Bear target

$21

p=20%

Key bullets

Fast scan of bull, bear, and watch items

BullKey bullets

Reserve build / credit remeasurement
M&A / local deposit gains
Loan growth, stable deposits, and modest NIM expansion lift EPS and justify a re-rating toward the bull target.

BearKey bullets

Commercial-credit deterioration
Deposit attrition or rising funding costs
Regional economic or CRE weakness

WatchKey bullets

Quarterly earnings (near-term)

Summary

High-level snapshot

Recommendation

Model confidence

medium

Timeframe

Asset

Equity

Trigger

Base case: $26 (p=55%)

Bull/Bear spread: -3% / -35%

Vs latest close: Bull -3% · Base -19% · Bear -35%

Scenario probabilities

Bull Target: $31 (p=25%)Base Target: $26 (p=55%)Bear Target: $21 (p=20%)

Commentary

Investor tone is guarded: filings emphasize credit and rate sensitivity while attention centers on upcoming results and regional-bank headlines; sentiment is neutral-to-cautious with upside linked to visible NIM and loan improvements.

As of 2025-11-03 • Updated bi-weekly / post-earningsSource: Internal modelMethodology

Analyst Summary

Thesis highlights from the latest analysis

Bull Case

Loan growth, stable deposits, and modest NIM expansion lift EPS and justify a re-rating toward the bull target.

Bear Case

Reserve builds, deposit outflows, or margin compression reduce EPS and push the stock toward the bear target.

Drivers

Scannable catalysts and supporting factors

Reserve build / credit remeasurement
M&A / local deposit gains

Scenarios

Bull Target (Scenario probability)

$31 / p=25% prob

Base Target (Scenario probability)

$26 / p=55% prob

Bear Target (Scenario probability)

$21 / p=20% prob

Price $32 as of 2026-07-17

Nearest Scenario: Bull (∆ 3%)

Targets vs latest close: Bull -3% · Base -19% · Bear -35%

Sentiment & Exposure

Sentiment unavailable: insufficient coverage

Events

Other notable items detected

EVENT
Quarterly earnings (near-term)
Earnings drive volatility; NIM and credit costs will determine near-term stock direction per SEC filings.
Prob 80.00% • Move 8.00% • Priced-in 50.00%

Short-term Catalysts

Next few weeks

Reserve build / credit remeasurement
TBD
Rising delinquencies or reserve increases would compress EPS and pressure the multiple.
Prob 40% • Move -12% • Priced-in 30%

Long-term Catalysts

Months to a year

M&A / local deposit gains
TBD
Successful local consolidation or deposit wins could lift fee income and margins over time.
Prob 30% • Move 25% • Priced-in 20%

Risks

Commercial-credit deterioration
Deposit attrition or rising funding costs
Regional economic or CRE weakness
Surprise regulatory or capital actions

Peers

Symbol	Summary
WAL	Larger regional — useful comp for capital and loan-cycle sensitivity.
ZION	Regional lender with comparable commercial/consumer loan exposure.
PB	Sun Belt regional with similar deposit-competition dynamics.

Sources

Internal and external references used in this analysis

Model source: RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Analysis date: 2025-11-03

AI Stock Memo: AVBH - Avidbank - RankAlpha