AUBN

Rating neutralAI MemoPost-earnings T+1

Auburn National Bancorporation

As of 2026-07-21/Post-earnings T+1/Confidence medium

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Data freshness

AI Memo

As of 2026-07-21 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex

Decision Panel

Action, confidence, horizon, and decision blockers at a glance.

Action

neutral

Confidence

medium

Horizon

—

Key catalyst

Q2 earnings confirmation remains the key near-term trigger • 2027-07-21

Expected move: +1%

Biggest risk

The Q2 print is not yet confirmed in the available evidence, and Q1 net charge-offs rose to 0.28% of average loans annualized from 0.05% a year earlier. Small scale, geographic concentration, and low coverage increase uncertainty.

Invalidation

Break below $22 or thesis failure.

What would change my mind?

Q1 results indicate improving earnings power from higher loan growth, better asset yields, lower deposit costs, and mortgage-lending income, with reported nonperforming assets at 0.01% of total assets. [#SEC-8K-2026-04-28]

Research note

Recommendation

neutral

Confidence

medium

As of

2026-07-21

Base target

$27

p=55%

Bull target

$29

p=20%

Bear target

$22

p=25%

Key bullets

Fast scan of bull, bear, and watch items

BullKey bullets

Sustained community-bank operating execution could support rerating
Dividend continuity provides modest shareholder support
Q1 results indicate improving earnings power from higher loan growth, better asset yields, lower deposit costs, and mortgage-lending income, with reported nonperforming assets at 0.01% of total assets.

BearKey bullets

Low coverage and small market capitalization limit forward visibility and may amplify price volatility.
Margin, loan-growth, and credit trends may not persist without current management guidance or updated filings.
No confirmed Q2 earnings release, consensus comparison, analyst revision, or post-print market reaction is available.

WatchKey bullets

Q2 earnings confirmation remains the key near-term trigger

Summary

High-level snapshot

Recommendation

neutral

Model confidence

medium

Timeframe

Asset

Equity

Trigger

Post-earnings T+1

Base case: $27 (p=55%)

Bull/Bear spread: +11% / -16%

Vs latest close: Bull +11% · Base +1% · Bear -16%

Scenario probabilities

Bull Target: $29 (p=20%)Base Target: $27 (p=55%)Bear Target: $22 (p=25%)

Commentary

Tone is mildly constructive on the last verified Q1 results, but current coverage is thin. The packet provides no social context, analyst targets, post-earnings revisions, options data, or confirmed Q2 market reaction; missing reaction and revision data are not positive evidence.

As of 2026-07-21 • Updated bi-weekly / post-earningsSource: Internal modelMethodology

Analyst Summary

Thesis highlights from the latest analysis

Bull Case

Bear Case

Drivers

Scannable catalysts and supporting factors

Sustained community-bank operating execution could support rerating
Dividend continuity provides modest shareholder support

Scenarios

Bull Target (Scenario probability)

$29 / p=20% prob

Base Target (Scenario probability)

$27 / p=55% prob

Bear Target (Scenario probability)

$22 / p=25% prob

Price $26 as of 2026-07-21

Nearest Scenario: Base (∆ 1%)

Targets vs latest close: Bull +11% · Base +1% · Bear -16%

Sentiment & Exposure

News Sentiment (30d)

0.50

Social Sentiment (7d)

0.50

Events

Other notable items detected

EVENT2027-07-21
Q2 earnings confirmation remains the key near-term trigger
The packet marks July 20, 2026 as a scheduled post-earnings follow-up, but no confirmed Q2 company release, 8-K, consensus comparison, analyst revision, or market-reaction evidence is available. The last verified print showed Q1 EPS up 43% year over year, net interest income up 10%, NIM up 19 basis points to 3.28%, and annualized loan growth of 12%, while charge-offs increased. [#SEC-8K-2026-04-28]
Prob 45.00% • Move 4.00% • Priced-in 40.00%

Short-term Catalysts

Next few weeks

No short-term catalysts

Long-term Catalysts

Months to a year

Sustained community-bank operating execution could support rerating
2026-12-31
Q1 operating trends were constructive, including improved margin, revenue growth, controlled noninterest expense, and very low reported nonperforming assets. Forward visibility remains limited because no current guidance or analyst estimates are available. [#SEC-8K-2026-04-28]
Prob 30% • Move 10% • Priced-in 50%
Dividend continuity provides modest shareholder support
2027-07-21
A company announcement reported a second-quarter cash dividend of $0.27 per share, payable June 25, 2026. The payment date has passed, so this is primarily a defensive carry signal rather than a fresh event catalyst. [#PR-EARNINGS-2026-05-13]
Prob 65% • Move 3% • Priced-in 85%

Risks

Low coverage and small market capitalization limit forward visibility and may amplify price volatility.
Margin, loan-growth, and credit trends may not persist without current management guidance or updated filings.
No confirmed Q2 earnings release, consensus comparison, analyst revision, or post-print market reaction is available.
Q1 net charge-offs increased, primarily because one nonperforming loan was fully charged off, despite nonperforming assets improving to 0.01% of total assets. [#SEC-8K-2026-04-28]

Peers

Symbol	Summary
BYFC	Same-sector, similar-market-cap bank candidate from the packet; no comparative operating or valuation data were supplied, so it is only a loose size reference.
FDSB	Same-sector, similar-market-cap bank candidate from the packet; useful as a loose peer-screen reference, but no verified relative fundamentals were provided.
FUSB	Same-sector, similar-market-cap bank candidate from the packet; comparative earnings, credit, and valuation evidence is unavailable.
SSBI	Same-sector, similar-market-cap bank candidate from the packet; peer comparison remains limited by sparse coverage and missing operating metrics.

Sources

Internal and external references used in this analysis

Model source: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Human targets: serper
Analysis date: 2026-07-21

AI Stock Memo: AUBN - Auburn National Bancorporation - RankAlpha