ARLP

TentativeAI MemoPost-earnings T+3

Alliance Resource Partners

As of 2026-07-30/Post-earnings T+3/Confidence medium

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Data freshness

AI Memo

As of 2026-07-30 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex

Decision Panel

Action, confidence, horizon, and decision blockers at a glance.

Report quality notice

later post-earnings follow-up lacks concrete company-source and analyst/market reaction evidence

Action

—

Confidence

medium

Horizon

—

Key catalyst

Q2 earnings showed stronger operating cash generation • 2026-07-27

Base target: $28 / p=55% prob

Biggest risk

The quarter included a $0.02 adjusted-EPS miss versus reported consensus, lower coal pricing, and sequential oil and gas volume decline from natural pad declines. The AllDale transaction raises debt and execution requirements, while commodity prices and coal demand remain key sensitivities.

Invalidation

Break below $23 or thesis failure.

What would change my mind?

The earnings print reinforced improving coal productivity, strong contracted volumes, record oil and gas royalty performance, and a potentially accretive royalty acquisition. Revenue of $551.6M exceeded the reported $545.89M estimate, while the median target in the packet is $31.375 versus the $25.95 anchor.

Research note

Recommendation

—

Confidence

medium

As of

2026-07-30

Base target

$28

p=55%

Bull target

$31

p=25%

Bear target

$23

p=20%

Key bullets

Fast scan of bull, bear, and watch items

BullKey bullets

Quarterly distribution support
Oil and gas royalty expansion
Back-half coal production recovery and contracted visibility

BearKey bullets

Coal demand, utility retirements, commodity prices, weather, customer performance, regulatory changes, and mine execution remain material risks.
[#SEC-8K-2026-07-27]
Coal sales prices remain pressured by lower-priced contract roll-offs and mix, while Appalachia pricing declined sharply year over year.

WatchKey bullets

Q2 earnings showed stronger operating cash generation

Summary

High-level snapshot

Recommendation

Model confidence

medium

Timeframe

Asset

Equity

Trigger

Post-earnings T+3

Base case: $28 (p=55%)

Target spread vs base: +14% / -18%

Scenario probabilities

Bull Target: $31 (p=25%)Base Target: $28 (p=55%)Bear Target: $23 (p=20%)

Commentary

News tone is positive but mixed: the company reported higher revenue, EBITDA, distributable cash flow, and coverage, while analyst-sourced EPS modestly missed consensus. The July 27 close rose 3.72% to $25.63, but the later $25.95 July 29 anchor does not establish a sustained post-print re-rating. No post-print analyst target, rating, or estimate revisions were confirmed. Social, options, short-interest, and employee-sentiment data were unavailable; confidence remains moderate.

As of 2026-07-30 • Updated bi-weekly / post-earningsSource: Internal modelMethodology

Analyst Summary

Thesis highlights from the latest analysis

Bull Case

Bear Case

Drivers

Scannable catalysts and supporting factors

Quarterly distribution support
Oil and gas royalty expansion
Back-half coal production recovery and contracted visibility

Scenarios

Bull Target (Scenario probability)

$31 / p=25% prob

Base Target (Scenario probability)

$28 / p=55% prob

Bear Target (Scenario probability)

$23 / p=20% prob

Analysis 2026-07-30 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex

Analysis reference price unavailable. Targets are shown without scenario returns.

Sentiment & Exposure

News Sentiment (30d)

0.64

Social Sentiment (7d)

0.00

Events

Other notable items detected

EVENT2026-07-27
Q2 earnings showed stronger operating cash generation
Q2 revenue was $551.6M, Adjusted EBITDA $185.7M, distributable cash flow $108.2M, and distribution coverage 1.39x; EPS was $0.61 versus reported consensus of $0.63. The stock closed at $25.63, up 3.72%, on July 27. [#SEC-8K-2026-07-27] ([SEC Exhibit 99.1](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1086600/000110465926086855/arlp-20260727xex99d1.htm)) ([Reuters summary](https://www.investing.com/news/earnings/alliance-resource-partners-beats-revenue-misses-on-earnings-93CH-4813596))
Prob 100.00% • Move 3.70% • Priced-in 85.00%

Short-term Catalysts

Next few weeks

Quarterly distribution support
2026-10-28
The partnership maintained its $0.60 per-unit quarterly distribution, with the next distribution payable August 14, 2026 to holders of record August 7. [#SEC-8K-2026-07-27]
Prob 80% • Move 2% • Priced-in 80%

Long-term Catalysts

Months to a year

Oil and gas royalty expansion
2027-07-30
The completed $206.2M AllDale III & IV acquisition adds approximately 48,500 net royalty acres, and management increased 2026 oil, gas, and liquids volume guidance beginning in Q3. [#SEC-8K-2026-07-27]
Prob 75% • Move 8% • Priced-in 55%
Back-half coal production recovery and contracted visibility
2027-07-30
Management expects no additional longwall moves until 2027, with Hamilton returning to production; 2026 coal sales are essentially fully committed at the midpoint and 29.4M tons are committed for 2027. [#SEC-8K-2026-07-27]
Prob 65% • Move 6% • Priced-in 50%

Risks

Coal demand, utility retirements, commodity prices, weather, customer performance, regulatory changes, and mine execution remain material risks. [#SEC-8K-2026-07-27]
Coal sales prices remain pressured by lower-priced contract roll-offs and mix, while Appalachia pricing declined sharply year over year. [#SEC-8K-2026-07-27]
Oil and gas royalty volumes declined 8.4% sequentially because of natural decline from high-ownership pads. [#SEC-8K-2026-07-27]
Post-print analyst target, rating, and estimate revision data was not confirmed; the peer set is now more relevant operationally but still imperfect because BTU and CNR have greater scale and different geographic or product mixes.
Q2 adjusted EPS reportedly missed consensus by $0.02, limiting the strength of the earnings surprise. ([Reuters summary](https://www.investing.com/news/earnings/alliance-resource-partners-beats-revenue-misses-on-earnings-93CH-4813596))
The AllDale acquisition was partly funded with borrowings; total debt and finance leases were $590.2M and net leverage was 0.67x at June 30. [#SEC-8K-2026-07-27]

Peers

Symbol	Summary
BTU	Direct coal operating comparator: Peabody's 2025 Form 10-K identifies ARLP among its principal U.S. direct coal-supply competitors and describes Peabody as a thermal and metallurgical coal producer. ([Peabody 2025 Form 10-K](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1064728/000106472826000006/btu-20251231.htm))
CNR	Direct coal operating comparator: Core Natural Resources' 2025 Form 10-K describes the company as a producer and exporter of metallurgical and thermal coal, though its larger export and metallurgical exposure makes the comparison imperfect. ([Core 2025 Form 10-K](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1710366/000171036626000007/cnr-20251231.htm))

Sources

Internal and external references used in this analysis

Model source: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Analysis date: 2026-07-30

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Symbol

Summary

BTU

Direct coal operating comparator: Peabody's 2025 Form 10-K identifies ARLP among its principal U.S. direct coal-supply competitors and describes Peabody as a thermal and metallurgical coal producer. ([Peabody 2025 Form 10-K](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1064728/000106472826000006/btu-20251231.htm))

CNR

Direct coal operating comparator: Core Natural Resources' 2025 Form 10-K describes the company as a producer and exporter of metallurgical and thermal coal, though its larger export and metallurgical exposure makes the comparison imperfect. ([Core 2025 Form 10-K](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1710366/000171036626000007/cnr-20251231.htm))