AI Stock Memo: ARLP - Alliance Resource Partners - RankAlpha

ARLP

Rating buyAI Memo

Alliance Resource Partners

As of 2026-01-13/Confidence medium

Open ticker Back to Memos

Data freshness

AI Memo

As of 2026-01-13 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment AI

Decision Panel

Action, confidence, horizon, and decision blockers at a glance.

Action

buy

Confidence

medium

Horizon

—

Key catalyst

Annual meeting of unitholders (trustee election) • 2026-01-26

Expected move: +21%

Biggest risk

Prolonged weak coal demand or a distribution cut/adjustment driven by weaker cashflows could compress valuation toward the low-$20s or below, reflecting MLP risk and commodity cyclicality.

Invalidation

Break below $20 or thesis failure.

What would change my mind?

Re-rating driven by sustained coal price strength and stable distributable cashflow, pushing unit valuation toward analyst highs near $33 as distribution policy remains intact and leverage is controlled.

Research note

Recommendation

buy

Confidence

medium

As of

2026-01-13

Base target

$30

p=50%

Bull target

$33

p=30%

Bear target

$20

p=20%

Key bullets

Fast scan of bull, bear, and watch items

BullKey bullets

Analyst consensus 12-month price-target revisions
Coal demand / commodity cycle recovery or deterioration
Re-rating driven by sustained coal price strength and stable distributable cashflow, pushing unit valuation toward analyst highs near $33 as distribution policy remains intact and leverage is controlled.

BearKey bullets

Distribution reduction or suspension
Operational disruptions at major mining sites
Regulatory/environmental constraints affecting operations

WatchKey bullets

Annual meeting of unitholders (trustee election)

Summary

High-level snapshot

Recommendation

buy

Model confidence

medium

Timeframe

Asset

Equity

Trigger

Base case: $30 (p=50%)

Bull/Bear spread: +33% / -20%

Vs latest close: Bull +33% · Base +21% · Bear -20%

Scenario probabilities

Bull Target: $33 (p=30%)Base Target: $30 (p=50%)Bear Target: $20 (p=20%)

Commentary

Market tone is cautiously constructive: company IR shows regular distributions and a Jan 2026 results release, while Street targets cluster well above the current anchor price, indicating upside in consensus but limited near-term certainty [#SERP-1], [#SERP-4]. Short-term sentiment may be muted pending the Feb. 11 distribution and any post-meeting governance news [#SERP-5].

As of 2026-01-13 • Updated bi-weekly / post-earningsSource: Internal modelMethodology

Analyst Summary

Thesis highlights from the latest analysis

Bull Case

Bear Case

Prolonged weak coal demand or a distribution cut/adjustment driven by weaker cashflows could compress valuation toward the low-$20s or below, reflecting MLP risk and commodity cyclicality.

Drivers

Scannable catalysts and supporting factors

Analyst consensus 12-month price-target revisions
Coal demand / commodity cycle recovery or deterioration

Human Analyst Targets

External snippets for comparison only; verify at source.

Unverified externalLast fetched 2026-01-13Source quality: external scrape

External snippets are unverified; treat as directional signals only. Always confirm with the original provider.

Inline RA est

Provider

serper

Median (USD)

$30.63

Range (USD)

$24.07 - $33.00

Count

Query: Alliance Resource Partners LP Unit (ARLP) analyst consensus price target high low average

Consensus Alliance Resource Partners, LP - MarketScreener
Search result #1
Analysts' Consensus ; Spread / Average Target. +27.26% ; High Price Target. 33.00USD ; Spread / Highest target. +35.47% ; Low Price Target. 29.00USD ; Spread / ...
Extracted: $33.00, $29.00Open source
Alliance Resource Partners L.P. Analyst Estimates - MarketWatch
Search result #2
Stock Price Targets. High, $33.00. Median, $30.50. Low, $29.00. Average, $30.75. Current Price, $24.07. Yearly Numbers. Estimates. ARLP will report 2025 ...
Extracted: $33.00, $30.50, $29.00, $30.75, $24.07Open source
ARLP Stock Forecast: Analyst Ratings, Predictions & Price Target ...
Search result #3
Wall Street analysts have set a price target of $29.50, reflecting a 0.00% increase from the current stock price. What is the 2025 price prediction for ARLP?
Extracted: $29.50Open source
Alliance Resource Partners (ARLP) Stock Price & Overview
Search result #4
According to 2 analysts, the average rating for ARLP stock is "Strong Buy." The 12-month stock price target is $29.5, which is an increase of 21.10% from the ...
Extracted: $29.50Open source
Alliance Resource Partners, L.P. (ARLP) Analyst Ratings, Estimates ...
Search result #5
See Alliance Resource Partners, L.P. (ARLP) stock analyst estimates, including earnings and revenue, EPS, upgrades and downgrades.
Open source
Alliance Resource (ARLP) Stock Forecast & Price Target
Search result #6
According to projections from 3 analysts, the average 12-month price target for Alliance Resource is 31, with a high estimate of 33 and a low estimate of 29.
Open source

Scenarios

Bull Target (Scenario probability)

$33 / p=30% prob

Base Target (Scenario probability)

$30 / p=50% prob

Bear Target (Scenario probability)

$20 / p=20% prob

Price $25 as of 2026-05-29

Nearest Scenario: Bear (∆ 20%)

Targets vs latest close: Bull +33% · Base +21% · Bear -20%

Sentiment & Exposure

Sentiment unavailable: insufficient coverage

Events

Other notable items detected

EVENT2026-01-26
Annual meeting of unitholders (trustee election)
Annual meeting and trustee election scheduled Jan. 26, 2026 per investor notice; potential governance news or trustee changes could move sentiment [#SERP-5].
Prob 90.00% • Move 1.00% • Priced-in 70.00%
EVENT2026-02-11
Quarterly cash distribution payable (declared)
Quarterly cash distribution of $0.35/unit declared; payable Feb. 11, 2026 (record Feb. 2, 2026) — largely confirmed by company IR release [#SERP-4].
Prob 95.00% • Move -2.00% • Priced-in 90.00%

Short-term Catalysts

Next few weeks

Analyst consensus 12-month price-target revisions
2026-04-13
Street 12-month consensus targets cluster near $29–33; any coordinated upgrades/downgrades over the next quarter could move the unit price (assumed date is conservative estimate for next formal revision window) [#SERP-1], [#SERP-2].
Prob 60% • Move 10% • Priced-in 25%

Long-term Catalysts

Months to a year

Coal demand / commodity cycle recovery or deterioration
2027-01-13
Macro-driven shift in coal demand or pricing (thermal/steel markets) could materially alter distributable cashflows and unit valuation; long-horizon outcome assumed at one-year horizon (estimate) [#SERP-1].
Prob 40% • Move 25% • Priced-in 30%

Risks

Distribution reduction or suspension
Operational disruptions at major mining sites
Regulatory/environmental constraints affecting operations
Sharp coal price decline reducing distributable cashflow

Peers

Symbol	Summary
BTU	Peabody Energy — large thermal/Met coal exposure; similar commodity sensitivity and distribution drivers.
CTRA	Contura Energy — smaller cap coal operator with nearer-term cashflow volatility; useful operational comparison.

Sources

Internal and external references used in this analysis

Model source: RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Human targets: serper
Targets query: Alliance Resource Partners LP Unit (ARLP) analyst consensus price target high low average
Analysis date: 2026-01-13