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ARLP

Alliance Resource PartnersB
Nasdaq / Energy
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
Q3 operating improvement and a higher 2026 volume midpoint support the positive deterministic prior. Reported earnings of $1.08 per unit exceeded the $0.85 estimate cited by StreetInsider, and revenue of $603.0 million exceeded its $585.83 million consensus.
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -4.8.
What can break
Coal demand, environmental regulation, mine disruptions, and contract renewals remain material operating risks. [#SEC-8K-2026-10-26]
Momentum
41
Value
59
Sentiment
63
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $28.00 · Bull $32.00 · Bear $21.00Analysis 2026-10-27; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-27 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-27 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-10-27 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-27

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-27. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade B · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $31.75
Why
Momentum41 · Δ7d -16.4
Value59 · Δ7d -0.5
Sentiment63 · Δ7d -4.8
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.

Confirming evidence

  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -4.8.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Coal demand, environmental regulation, mine disruptions, and contract renewals remain material operating risks. [#SEC-8K-2026-10-26]
  • • Coal pricing and mix could erode the per-ton cost gains that drove Q3 margins. [#SEC-8K-2026-10-26]
  • • Realized coal price fell 8.3% year over year, and Q3 net income benefited from digital-asset and acquisition-related valuation gains.

Catalyst clock

2026-11-13

Post-earnings assessment of coal margins and guidance

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
41
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-16.4
Δ21d
-14.5
Value
59
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.5
Δ21d
-0.8
Sentiment
63
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-4.8
Δ21d
-18.1
Why this grade

Composite grade B. Momentum 41.5 / Value 58.5 / Sentiment 62.6

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-10-27. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
30%
Probability
Target price
$32.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-27 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
45%
Probability
Target price
$28.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-27 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$21.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-27 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-27
Market Cap
$3.43B
Beta
0.31
Shares Out
128.66M
P/E (TTM)
12.3
P/S (TTM)
1.33
P/FCF (TTM) · Derived
74.99
Rev YoY
+0.7%
EPS YoY
+34.1%
Gross Margin
+20.7%
Op Margin
+16.4%
Net Debt
$394.44M
Current Ratio
1.75
As of 2026-10-27 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data