B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$31.38
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-07-30 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
ARLP
Alliance Resource PartnersBNasdaq / Energy
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
The earnings print reinforced improving coal productivity, strong contracted volumes, record oil and gas royalty performance, and a potentially accretive royalty acquisition. Revenue of $551.6M exceeded the reported $545.89M estimate, while the median target in the packet is $31.375 versus the $25.95 anchor.
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +5.3.
What can break
Coal demand, utility retirements, commodity prices, weather, customer performance, regulatory changes, and mine execution remain material risks. [#SEC-8K-2026-07-27]
Momentum
47
Value
59
Sentiment
68
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $27.50 · Bull $31.38 · Bear $22.50Analysis 2026-07-30; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-07-30 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-09
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-09
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-09. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade B · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $31.38
Why
Momentum47 · Δ7d +8.2
Value59 · Δ7d +0.1
Sentiment68 · Δ7d +5.3
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.
Confirming evidence
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +5.3.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Coal demand, utility retirements, commodity prices, weather, customer performance, regulatory changes, and mine execution remain material risks. [#SEC-8K-2026-07-27]
- • Coal sales prices remain pressured by lower-priced contract roll-offs and mix, while Appalachia pricing declined sharply year over year. [#SEC-8K-2026-07-27]
- • The quarter included a $0.02 adjusted-EPS miss versus reported consensus, lower coal pricing, and sequential oil and gas volume decline from natural pad declines.
Catalyst clock
2026-07-27
Q2 earnings showed stronger operating cash generation
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
47
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+8.2
Δ21d
-8.4
Value
59
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.1
Δ21d
-1.2
Sentiment
68
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+5.3
Δ21d
-3.1
Why this grade
Composite grade B. Momentum 46.5 / Value 58.6 / Sentiment 68.0
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-07-30. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
55%
Probability
Target price
$27.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-07-30 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
20%
Probability
Target price
$22.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-07-30 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$3.34B
Beta
0.31
Shares Out
128.66M
P/E (TTM)
12.3
P/S (TTM)
1.33
P/FCF (TTM) · Derived
72.88
Rev YoY
+0.7%
EPS YoY
+34.1%
Gross Margin
+20.7%
Op Margin
+16.4%
Net Debt
$394.44M
Current Ratio
1.75
As of 2026-09-09 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data