B+
Bull case
30%
Probability
Target price
$32.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-27 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
ARLP
Alliance Resource PartnersBNasdaq / Energy
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
AI scenario view
RankAlpha Sentiment CodexPost-earnings T+1Most likely
B
Base case
45%
Probability
Target price
$28.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-27 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$21.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-27 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
The current persistence contract does not provide an exact AI reference price. RankAlpha therefore does not calculate scenario return from the live quote. How scenarios are presented
AI sentiment snapshot
Latest data as of 2026-10-27
Recent news sentiment (30D)
+26.7
Positive
Company
+10.0
Positive
Macro
+26.7
Positive
Pulse
-
Unavailable
Weekly research (10D)
-55.0
Negative
Sentiment proxy
+62.3
Score
AI commentary
The earnings release and estimate comparison are positive, but ARLP closed October 26 at $26.40, up only 0.99% from October 23; that restrained close does not establish why investors traded it. Price history Verified post-print analyst revisions and reliable social, options, short-interest, and employee measures were unavailable. Numeric zeros in the sentiment fields indicate unavailable measures, not neutral readings.
RankAlpha Sentiment Codex - 2026-10-27
Open post-earnings memoEvidence flagged
No evidence quality warning is currently attached to this memo.
Impact
standard
Confidence
-
AI events
2026-11-13eventPost-earnings assessment of coal margins and guidanceMedium impact
Q3 revenue was $603.0 million, diluted earnings were $1.08 per unit, and adjusted EBITDA attributable to ARLP rose 26.3% year over year. Coal expense per ton fell 13.1%, more than offsetting weaker realized coal pricing. The midpoint of 2026 coal-volume guidance rose from 34.5 million to 35.0 million tons, while the sales-price midpoint fell from $55.00 to $54.50 per ton. The balance between durable cost savings and pricing pressure is the near-term test. [#SEC-8K-2026-10-26] [#SEC-8K-2026-07-27]
2026-11-13catalystNovember cash distributionMedium impact
ARLP declared an unchanged $0.60-per-unit quarterly distribution, payable November 13 to holders of record November 6. Q3 distribution coverage improved to 1.76x; sustained coverage, rather than this already-declared payment, would strengthen the capital-return case. [#SEC-8K-2026-10-26]
2027-10-27catalyst2027 contracted coal volumes and royalty contributionHigh impact
Committed and priced 2027 coal tons increased to 31.7 million from 29.4 million in July. Management expects a full-year contribution from minerals acquired in 2026 to support 2027 royalty results, but future commodity prices and execution remain material uncertainties. [#SEC-8K-2026-10-26] [#SEC-8K-2026-07-27]
Recommendation
N/A
No formal recommendation provided.
As of 2026-10-27 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethodology