AI Stock Memo: AMG - Affiliated Managers Group - RankAlpha

AMG

AI Memo

Affiliated Managers Group

As of 2026-02-14/Confidence medium

Open ticker Back to Memos

Data freshness

AI Memo

As of 2026-02-14 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment AI

Decision Panel

Action, confidence, horizon, and decision blockers at a glance.

Action

—

Confidence

medium

Horizon

—

Key catalyst

Capital return / share repurchase cadence • 2026-05-15

Expected move: +12%

Biggest risk

Prolonged outflows or sustained weak active performance compresses fees and performance-related revenue, depressing EPS and forcing valuation multiple contraction.

Invalidation

Break below $285 or thesis failure.

What would change my mind?

AMG outperforms as active management rebounds, AUM growth accelerates, and the company expands buybacks—driving multiple expansion and margin leverage.

Research note

Recommendation

—

Confidence

medium

As of

2026-02-14

Base target

$338

p=60%

Bull target

$420

p=20%

Bear target

$285

p=20%

Key bullets

Fast scan of bull, bear, and watch items

BullKey bullets

Next quarterly earnings and AUM update
Multi-year performance fee and active management recovery
AMG outperforms as active management rebounds, AUM growth accelerates, and the company expands buybacks—driving multiple expansion and margin leverage.

BearKey bullets

AUM outflows during extended market stress
Concentration of top-performing affiliates and talent departures
Regulatory changes affecting fee structures or distribution

WatchKey bullets

Capital return / share repurchase cadence

Summary

High-level snapshot

Recommendation

Model confidence

medium

Timeframe

Asset

Equity

Trigger

Base case: $338 (p=60%)

Bull/Bear spread: +39% / -6%

Vs latest close: Bull +39% · Base +12% · Bear -6%

Scenario probabilities

Bull Target: $420 (p=20%)Base Target: $338 (p=60%)Bear Target: $285 (p=20%)

Commentary

Market and analyst sentiment is mixed-to-cautious: the median analyst target near $338 implies only modest upside from the current anchor (329.79), while individual targets range widely, signaling dispersion on flow and fee outcomes [#SERP-6][#SERP-2]. Near-term sentiment hinges on upcoming results and any capital-return signals; longer-term conviction depends on sustained performance-fee recovery and AUM retention [#SERP-1][#SERP-4].

As of 2026-02-14 • Updated bi-weekly / post-earningsSource: Internal modelMethodology

Analyst Summary

Thesis highlights from the latest analysis

Bull Case

AMG outperforms as active management rebounds, AUM growth accelerates, and the company expands buybacks—driving multiple expansion and margin leverage.

Bear Case

Prolonged outflows or sustained weak active performance compresses fees and performance-related revenue, depressing EPS and forcing valuation multiple contraction.

Drivers

Scannable catalysts and supporting factors

Next quarterly earnings and AUM update
Multi-year performance fee and active management recovery

Human Analyst Targets

External snippets for comparison only; verify at source.

Unverified externalLast fetched 2026-02-14Source quality: external scrape

External snippets are unverified; treat as directional signals only. Always confirm with the original provider.

Inline RA est

Provider

serper

Median (USD)

$338.00

Range (USD)

$255.00 - $519.75

Count

Query: Affiliated Managers Group Inc Common (AMG) analyst consensus price target high low average

Affiliated Managers Group, Inc. (AMG) Stock Price, News, Quote ...
Search result #1
Affiliated Managers Group Inc has an Investment Rating of BUY; a target price of $338.000000; an Industry Subrating of High; a Management Subrating of High; a ...
Extracted: $338.00Open source
AMG - Affiliated Managers Group, Inc. (NYSE) - Share Price and News
Search result #2
The average one-year price target for Affiliated Managers Group, Inc. is $389.98. The forecasts range from a low of $297.95 to a high of $519.75. A stock's ...
Extracted: $389.98, $297.95, $519.75Open source
Affiliated Managers Group Analyst Ratings - NYSE:AMG - Benzinga
Search result #3
Affiliated Managers Group Inc has a consensus price target of $295.29 based on the ratings of 7 analysts. The high is $495 issued by TD Cowen on January 14, ...
Extracted: $295.29, $495.00Open source
Affiliated Managers Consensus Estimates (AMG) - Investing.com NG
Search result #4
85. The highest analyst price target is USD485, and the lowest is USD255. What Is AMG's Potential Upside or Downside, Based ...
Extracted: $485.00, $255.00Open source
Affiliated Managers Group (AMG) Price Targets
Search result #5
The forecasts range from a low of $283.00 to a high of $495.00. The average price target represents an increase of 19.49% from the last closing price of $308. ...
Extracted: $283.00, $495.00, $308.00Open source
Consensus Affiliated Managers Group, Inc. - MarketScreener
Search result #6
Analysts' Consensus ; Mean consensus. BUY ; Number of Analysts. 7 ; Last Close Price. 308.09USD ; Average target price. 364.14USD ; Spread / Average Target. +18.19%.
Extracted: $308.09, $364.14Open source

Scenarios

Bull Target (Scenario probability)

$420 / p=20% prob

Base Target (Scenario probability)

$338 / p=60% prob

Bear Target (Scenario probability)

$285 / p=20% prob

Price $303 as of 2026-05-28

Nearest Scenario: Bear (∆ 6%)

Targets vs latest close: Bull +39% · Base +12% · Bear -6%

Sentiment & Exposure

Sentiment unavailable: insufficient coverage

Events

Other notable items detected

EVENT2026-05-15
Capital return / share repurchase cadence
Continuation or enlargement of buyback/dividend program could materially boost per‑share metrics and investor sentiment; analysts cite capital return optionality in models [#SERP-3], [#SERP-5].
Prob 55.00% • Move 6.00% • Priced-in 45.00%

Short-term Catalysts

Next few weeks

Next quarterly earnings and AUM update
2026-05-15
Quarterly results and AUM/flows update that typically drive stock re-rating; market expects modest upside vs. peers per recent analyst notes and consensus targets [#SERP-1], [#SERP-6].
Prob 70% • Move 4% • Priced-in 60%

Long-term Catalysts

Months to a year

Multi-year performance fee and active management recovery
2027-02-14
A sustained rebound in active management performance and higher performance fees would lift long-term earnings and justify multiple expansion; consensus targets show wide dispersion reflecting this structural uncertainty [#SERP-2], [#SERP-4].
Prob 40% • Move 25% • Priced-in 25%

Risks

AUM outflows during extended market stress
Concentration of top-performing affiliates and talent departures
Regulatory changes affecting fee structures or distribution
Underperformance of active strategies reducing performance fees

Peers

Symbol	Summary
BLK	Global ETF and active asset manager; similar sensitivity to markets and flows, useful for assessing scale-related fee advantage.
TROW	Active asset manager with retail/ institutional overlap; comparable exposure to performance fees and long-term flows.
BEN	Higher retail wealth-management tilt; provides a contrast on fee mix and distribution resilience.
IVZ	Diversified asset manager with value-oriented product mix; helpful for benchmarking distribution/merchant-market risks.

Sources

Internal and external references used in this analysis

Model source: RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Human targets: serper
Targets query: Affiliated Managers Group Inc Common (AMG) analyst consensus price target high low average
Analysis date: 2026-02-14