AI Stock Memo: FCFS - FirstCash - RankAlpha

FCFS

AI Memo

FirstCash

As of 2026-02-08/Confidence medium

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Data freshness

AI Memo

As of 2026-02-08 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment AI

Decision Panel

Action, confidence, horizon, and decision blockers at a glance.

Action

—

Confidence

medium

Horizon

—

Key catalyst

Next quarterly earnings release and guidance • 2026-05-09

Expected move: -16%

Biggest risk

Bear case assumes deterioration in consumer credit, rising loan-loss provisions, and multiple compression that could push value materially below consensus if credit metrics worsen.

Invalidation

Break below $110 or thesis failure.

What would change my mind?

Bull case assumes sustained strong same-store sales and fee income, contained credit losses, and multiple expansion toward analyst highs driven by improving consumer liquidity and successful capital returns.

Research note

Recommendation

—

Confidence

medium

As of

2026-02-08

Base target

$182

p=60%

Bull target

$217

p=20%

Bear target

$110

p=20%

Key bullets

Fast scan of bull, bear, and watch items

BullKey bullets

Analyst target revisions and coverage changes
Consumer credit cycle / pawn-loan demand normalization
Bull case assumes sustained strong same-store sales and fee income, contained credit losses, and multiple expansion toward analyst highs driven by improving consumer liquidity and successful capital returns.

BearKey bullets

Analyst downgrades and target cuts increasing volatility
Region-specific revenue concentration
Regulatory changes affecting pawn/short-term lending

WatchKey bullets

Next quarterly earnings release and guidance

Summary

High-level snapshot

Recommendation

Model confidence

medium

Timeframe

Asset

Equity

Trigger

Base case: $182 (p=60%)

Bull/Bear spread: +0% / -49%

Vs latest close: Bull +0% · Base -16% · Bear -49%

Scenario probabilities

Bull Target: $217 (p=20%)Base Target: $182 (p=60%)Bear Target: $110 (p=20%)

Commentary

Market tone is mixed-to-cautious: the analyst median is essentially at the current price while the top-side targets imply meaningful upside, producing a neutral technical posture [#SERP-7], [#SERP-2]. Dispersion across broker targets increases the chance of news-driven swings; monitoring incoming earnings and credit metrics is key to direction [#SERP-3].

As of 2026-02-08 • Updated bi-weekly / post-earningsSource: Internal modelMethodology

Analyst Summary

Thesis highlights from the latest analysis

Bull Case

Bear Case

Bear case assumes deterioration in consumer credit, rising loan-loss provisions, and multiple compression that could push value materially below consensus if credit metrics worsen.

Drivers

Scannable catalysts and supporting factors

Analyst target revisions and coverage changes
Consumer credit cycle / pawn-loan demand normalization

Human Analyst Targets

External snippets for comparison only; verify at source.

Unverified externalLast fetched 2026-02-08Source quality: external scrape

External snippets are unverified; treat as directional signals only. Always confirm with the original provider.

Inline RA est

Provider

serper

Median (USD)

$181.83

Range (USD)

$90.00 - $217.00

Count

Query: FirstCash Holdings Inc Common (FCFS) analyst consensus price target high low average

FirstCash Holdings, Inc. (FCFS) Stock Price, News, Quote & History
Search result #1
FIRSTCASH HOLDINGS INC has an Investment Rating of BUY; a target price of $182.000000; an Industry Subrating of High; a Management Subrating of Medium; a Safety ...
Extracted: $182.00Open source
FirstCash (FCFS) Stock Forecast and Price Target 2026 - MarketBeat
Search result #2
According to the 7 analysts' twelve-month price targets for FirstCash, the average price target is $169.40. The highest price target for FCFS is $217.00, while ...
Extracted: $169.40, $217.00Open source
What is the current Price Target and Forecast for FirstCash (FCFS)
Search result #3
The forecasts range from a low of $160.00 to a high of $210.00. The average price target represents an increase of 8.49% from the last closing price of $170.98.
Extracted: $160.00, $210.00, $170.98Open source
FirstCash Holdings, Inc: Target Price Consensus and Analysts ...
Search result #4
Wedbush Raises FirstCash's PT to $110 From $90 After In Line Quarter, Says Inflation, Credit Tightening Should Continue to Increase Demand; Keeps Neutral ...
Extracted: $110.00, $90.00Open source
Firstcash Holdings Inc NASDAQ:FCFS - Alpha Spread
Search result #5
Wall Street analysts forecast FCFS stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for FCFS ...
Open source
First Cash Stock Price Today | NASDAQ: FCFS Live - Investing.com
Search result #6
The average 12-month price target for FirstCash is USD201.40, with a high estimate of USD217 and a low estimate of USD180. 4 analysts recommend buying the stock ...
Extracted: $201.40, $217.00, $180.00Open source

Scenarios

Bull Target (Scenario probability)

$217 / p=20% prob

Base Target (Scenario probability)

$182 / p=60% prob

Bear Target (Scenario probability)

$110 / p=20% prob

Price $216 as of 2026-07-16

Nearest Scenario: Bull (∆ 0%)

Targets vs latest close: Bull +0% · Base -16% · Bear -49%

Sentiment & Exposure

Sentiment unavailable: insufficient coverage

Events

Other notable items detected

EVENT2026-05-09
Next quarterly earnings release and guidance
Quarterly results and management commentary could reprice shares depending on loan-loss trends and same-store revenue (estimated window end; source: broker/consensus event calendars and analyst coverage) [#SERP-2].
Prob 80.00% • Move 6.00% • Priced-in 50.00%
EVENT2026-05-09
Capital allocation update (buyback/dividend) or strategic disclosure
Company announcements on buybacks/dividends or M&A could revalue shares; timing is uncertain so a near-term conservative estimate is used (estimated; source: company IR / broker notes).
Prob 40.00% • Move 4.00% • Priced-in 20.00%

Short-term Catalysts

Next few weeks

Analyst target revisions and coverage changes
2026-05-09
Wide dispersion in 12-month targets (reported low-to-high $90–$217) means broker revisions or note updates could move consensus and trading flows (sources: aggregated price-target listings) [#SERP-2], [#SERP-3].
Prob 65% • Move 8% • Priced-in 40%

Long-term Catalysts

Months to a year

Consumer credit cycle / pawn-loan demand normalization
2027-02-08
Macro trends in consumer liquidity and credit costs drive long-term pawn and short-term loan demand; material improvement or deterioration in the next year would change revenue/provision paths (estimated; source: sector macro commentary) [#SERP-6].
Prob 60% • Move 25% • Priced-in 30%

Risks

Analyst downgrades and target cuts increasing volatility
Region-specific revenue concentration
Regulatory changes affecting pawn/short-term lending
Worsening consumer credit leading to higher provisions

Peers

Symbol	Summary
EZPW	EZCORP operates pawn and short-term consumer lending with overlapping demand drivers and similar sensitivity to consumer cash-flow stress.

Sources

Internal and external references used in this analysis

Model source: RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Human targets: serper
Targets query: FirstCash Holdings Inc Common (FCFS) analyst consensus price target high low average
Analysis date: 2026-02-08