AI Stock Memo: ALV - Autoliv - RankAlpha

ALV

Rating buyAI Memo

Autoliv

As of 2026-02-01/Confidence medium

Open ticker Back to Memos

Data freshness

AI Memo

As of 2026-02-01 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment AI

Decision Panel

Action, confidence, horizon, and decision blockers at a glance.

Action

buy

Confidence

medium

Horizon

—

Key catalyst

Supply-chain or commodity shock • 2026-04-30

Expected move: +9%

Biggest risk

Program delays, production softness, commodity inflation, or a major recall compress revenue and margins, moving valuation toward the low end of consensus.

Invalidation

Break below $118 or thesis failure.

What would change my mind?

Autoliv secures ADAS/EV program wins and converts design wins into higher ASPs and margin expansion, driving shares toward consensus highs.

Research note

Recommendation

buy

Confidence

medium

As of

2026-02-01

Base target

$134

p=60%

Bull target

$152

p=20%

Bear target

$118

p=20%

Key bullets

Fast scan of bull, bear, and watch items

BullKey bullets

Q1 2026 results & guidance
ADAS / EV safety content growth
Autoliv secures ADAS/EV program wins and converts design wins into higher ASPs and margin expansion, driving shares toward consensus highs.

BearKey bullets

Commodity-cost inflation
Loss/delay of key OEM program
Major recall or liability event

WatchKey bullets

Supply-chain or commodity shock

Summary

High-level snapshot

Recommendation

buy

Model confidence

medium

Timeframe

Asset

Equity

Trigger

Base case: $134 (p=60%)

Bull/Bear spread: +24% / -4%

Vs latest close: Bull +24% · Base +9% · Bear -4%

Scenario probabilities

Bull Target: $152 (p=20%)Base Target: $134 (p=60%)Bear Target: $118 (p=20%)

Commentary

Tone is cautiously constructive: analyst medians sit above the anchor, implying modest upside, but price action after recent results shows skepticism and event-driven sensitivity.

As of 2026-02-01 • Updated bi-weekly / post-earningsSource: Internal modelMethodology

Analyst Summary

Thesis highlights from the latest analysis

Bull Case

Autoliv secures ADAS/EV program wins and converts design wins into higher ASPs and margin expansion, driving shares toward consensus highs.

Bear Case

Program delays, production softness, commodity inflation, or a major recall compress revenue and margins, moving valuation toward the low end of consensus.

Drivers

Scannable catalysts and supporting factors

Q1 2026 results & guidance
ADAS / EV safety content growth

Human Analyst Targets

External snippets for comparison only; verify at source.

Unverified externalLast fetched 2026-02-01Source quality: external scrape

External snippets are unverified; treat as directional signals only. Always confirm with the original provider.

Inline RA est

Provider

serper

Median (USD)

$133.64

Range (USD)

$100.00 - $152.00

Count

Query: Autoliv Inc Common (ALV) analyst consensus price target high low average

Autoliv (ALV) Stock Forecast & Price Target - Investing.com
Search result #1
According to projections from 16 analysts, the average 12-month price target for Autoliv is 138.73, with a high estimate of 152 and a low estimate of 117.6.
Open source
Autoliv, Inc. (ALV) Stock Price, News, Quote & History - Yahoo Finance
Search result #2
Autoliv's (NYSE:ALV) Q4 CY2025 Sales Beat Estimates But Stock Drops ... Analyst Insights: ALV. Más detalles. Analyst Price Targets. 117.60. 138.64 Average.
Open source
AUTOLIV INC(NYSE:ALV) stock Analyst Ratings | ChartMill.com
Search result #3
Analysts have set a mean price target forecast of 140.22. This target is 16.63% above the current price. ALV was analyzed by 25 analysts ...
Open source
Autoliv, Inc.: Target Price Consensus and Analysts Recommendations
Search result #4
Mean consensus. OUTPERFORM ; Number of Analysts. 17 ; Last Close Price. 126.94USD ; Average target price. 138.72USD ; Spread / Average Target. +9.28%.
Extracted: $126.94, $138.72Open source
Autoliv (ALV) Stock Forecast, Price Targets and Analysts Predictions
Search result #5
The average price target is $138.78 with a high forecast of $150.00 and a low forecast of $123.00. The average price target represents a 9.92% change from the ...
Extracted: $138.78, $150.00, $123.00Open source
ALV Stock Forecast 2026 - Autoliv Price Targets & Predictions
Search result #6
Based on our analysis of 30 Wall Street analysts, ALV has a bullish consensus with a median price target of $140.00 (ranging from $117.60 to $152.00). The ...
Extracted: $140.00, $117.60, $152.00Open source

Scenarios

Bull Target (Scenario probability)

$152 / p=20% prob

Base Target (Scenario probability)

$134 / p=60% prob

Bear Target (Scenario probability)

$118 / p=20% prob

Price $123 as of 2026-05-22

Nearest Scenario: Bear (∆ 4%)

Targets vs latest close: Bull +24% · Base +9% · Bear -4%

Sentiment & Exposure

Sentiment unavailable: insufficient coverage

Events

Other notable items detected

EVENT2026-04-30
Supply-chain or commodity shock
Raw-material or supplier disruption could compress margins and hit near-term results; treated as a near-term downside event for scenario planning.
Prob 35.00% • Move -12.00% • Priced-in 25.00%
EVENT2026-08-01
Large recall / safety defect
A major OEM recall tied to restraint systems would be high-impact to volumes, margins, and reputation; modeled as a material downside event.
Prob 15.00% • Move -18.00% • Priced-in 10.00%

Short-term Catalysts

Next few weeks

Q1 2026 results & guidance
2026-05-02
Quarterly release where guidance, margins, and ADAS ASPs will drive near-term positioning; market reaction likely on beats/misses.
Prob 75% • Move 6% • Priced-in 50%

Long-term Catalysts

Months to a year

ADAS / EV safety content growth
2027-02-01
Structural adoption of ADAS and EV-related safety systems supports revenue and margin expansion over time; design wins will signal progress.
Prob 60% • Move 20% • Priced-in 40%

Risks

Commodity-cost inflation
Loss/delay of key OEM program
Major recall or liability event
OEM production slowdown

Peers

Symbol	Summary
APTV	Aptiv — ADAS and electronics supplier with comparable exposure to OEM content growth.
MGA	Magna International — diversified systems supplier; sensitive to vehicle production cycles and program timing.
LEA	Lear Corp — seating and electrical-systems supplier with overlapping OEM relationships and cyclicality.

Sources

Internal and external references used in this analysis

Model source: RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Human targets: serper
Targets query: Autoliv Inc Common (ALV) analyst consensus price target high low average
Analysis date: 2026-02-01