APTV

TentativeAI Memo

Aptiv

As of 2026-05-05/Confidence medium

Open ticker Back to Memos

Data freshness

AI Memo

As of 2026-05-05 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex

Decision Panel

Action, confidence, horizon, and decision blockers at a glance.

Report quality notice

peer set is too generic or lacks enough direct operating comparators

Action

—

Confidence

medium

Horizon

—

Key catalyst

Versigent spin-off resets the Aptiv equity story • 2026-04-01

Expected move: -16%

Biggest risk

The bear case is that the stock still lacks a fully refreshed post-spin consensus framework, the May 5 report could expose weaker auto production or margin conversion, and the 10-K said the timeline for commercially viable autonomous vehicles has been extended, requiring additional funding for Motional [#10-K-2026-02-06].

Invalidation

Break below $45 or thesis failure.

What would change my mind?

The cleanest bull argument is that the Versigent separation lets investors value a more focused Aptiv with higher-margin software, compute and engineered-components exposure, while management's February pro forma guide implies materially better margin structure for New Aptiv [#IR-2026-02-02].

Research note

Recommendation

—

Confidence

medium

As of

2026-05-05

Base target

$57

p=40%

Bull target

$72

p=25%

Bear target

$45

p=35%

Key bullets

Fast scan of bull, bear, and watch items

BullKey bullets

Q1 2026 report and call on May 5
Standalone margin and cash-flow targets need validation
The cleanest bull argument is that the Versigent separation lets investors value a more focused Aptiv with higher-margin software, compute and engineered-components exposure, while management's February pro forma guide implies materially better margin structure for New Aptiv [#IR-2026-02-02].

BearKey bullets

Automotive production cyclicality, commodity cost inflation, FX and tariff/trade-policy changes remain core earnings sensitivities called out across company filings and releases.
May 5 earnings can reset the thesis quickly if Aptiv cuts or fails to reaffirm the pro forma 2026 outlook.
Spin-off execution risk remains: Aptiv itself warned about failure to manage Versigent's transition and failure to achieve expected spin benefits in its April tender-offer disclosure [#IR-2026-04-06].

WatchKey bullets

Versigent spin-off resets the Aptiv equity story

Summary

High-level snapshot

Recommendation

Model confidence

medium

Timeframe

Asset

Equity

Trigger

Base case: $57 (p=40%)

Bull/Bear spread: +6% / -34%

Vs latest close: Bull +6% · Base -16% · Bear -34%

Scenario probabilities

Bull Target: $72 (p=25%)Base Target: $57 (p=40%)Bear Target: $45 (p=35%)

Commentary

Primary-source flow over the last two months has been busy but mostly corporate-transaction driven: the spin-off, debt tender and scheduled May 5 print keep headline buzz elevated, yet none of that by itself resolves the key question of what New Aptiv can earn post-spin. Social coverage was not provided in the packet, and no reliable post-print analyst revision set was available here, so confidence should stay moderate rather than aggressive.

As of 2026-05-05 • Updated bi-weekly / post-earningsSource: Internal modelMethodology

Analyst Summary

Thesis highlights from the latest analysis

Bull Case

Bear Case

Drivers

Scannable catalysts and supporting factors

Q1 2026 report and call on May 5
Standalone margin and cash-flow targets need validation

Scenarios

Bull Target (Scenario probability)

$72 / p=25% prob

Base Target (Scenario probability)

$57 / p=40% prob

Bear Target (Scenario probability)

$45 / p=35% prob

Price $68 as of 2026-05-29

Nearest Scenario: Bull (∆ 6%)

Targets vs latest close: Bull +6% · Base -16% · Bear -34%

Sentiment & Exposure

News Sentiment (30d)

0.10

Social Sentiment (7d)

0.00

Events

Other notable items detected

EVENT2026-04-01
Versigent spin-off resets the Aptiv equity story
Aptiv approved the Versigent spin-off with a March 17, 2026 record date and April 1, 2026 distribution date, with holders receiving one Versigent share for every three Aptiv shares; the market now has to re-underwrite New Aptiv on a standalone basis [#IR-2026-03-05].
Prob 100.00% • Move 9.00% • Priced-in 70.00%

Short-term Catalysts

Next few weeks

Q1 2026 report and call on May 5
2026-05-05
Aptiv said it will release Q1 2026 results on May 5, 2026 before market open and report them as Total Aptiv including the EDS business as a segment, making this the first near-term checkpoint on demand, margin and separation execution [#IR-2026-03-31].
Prob 100% • Move 7% • Priced-in 55%

Long-term Catalysts

Months to a year

Standalone margin and cash-flow targets need validation
2026-12-31
Aptiv's February outlook framed New Aptiv at $12.8-$13.2 billion of 2026 sales, 18.6% adjusted EBITDA margin and $200-$300 million of free cash flow, but those pro forma targets still need confirmation through post-spin execution and the May 5 update [#IR-2026-02-02].
Prob 60% • Move 12% • Priced-in 35%

Risks

Automotive production cyclicality, commodity cost inflation, FX and tariff/trade-policy changes remain core earnings sensitivities called out across company filings and releases.
May 5 earnings can reset the thesis quickly if Aptiv cuts or fails to reaffirm the pro forma 2026 outlook.
Spin-off execution risk remains: Aptiv itself warned about failure to manage Versigent's transition and failure to achieve expected spin benefits in its April tender-offer disclosure [#IR-2026-04-06].
The 10-K flagged extended autonomous-vehicle commercialization timelines and additional funding requirements for Motional [#10-K-2026-02-06].
The April debt tender improves liability management optics, but it also keeps attention on financing structure and post-spin balance-sheet discipline [#IR-2026-04-06].

Peers

Symbol	Summary
MGA	Magna is a direct auto-supplier comparator for Aptiv because Aptiv's 10-K identifies Magna among key competitors, and both are exposed to global OEM production cycles, vehicle content growth and supplier margin pressure [#10-K-2026-02-06].
LEA	Lear is a direct operating comparator rather than a broad EV proxy: Aptiv's 10-K lists Lear among key competitors, making it more relevant for electrical architecture, OEM program awards and auto-supplier cost pass-through comparisons than startup OEM peers [#10-K-2026-02-06].

Sources

Internal and external references used in this analysis

Model source: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Human targets: serper
Analysis date: 2026-05-05

AI Stock Memo: APTV - Aptiv - RankAlpha