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York SpaceD
NYSE / Capital Goods
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
Q2 revenue rose 10% year over year to $92.5 million, and gross margin reached 24%, though management attributed much of the margin improvement to a prior-year adjustment rolling off. Funded task-order conversion and the targeted Nemesis delivery could strengthen the case for later growth.
Posture
Defensive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -13.7.
What can break
Acquisition integration, contract concentration and spacecraft-delivery execution remain material risks identified by the company. [#SEC-8K-2026-08-13]
Momentum
2
Value
43
Sentiment
60
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $6.50 · Bull $9.50 · Bear $3.50Analysis 2026-10-15; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-26 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-28 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-10-15 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-28

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-28. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade D · Defensive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $13.79
Why
Momentum2 · Δ7d +0.1
Value43 · Δ7d +0.0
Sentiment60 · Δ7d -13.7
So what
Weak posture (Net Neutral). Prioritize risk control and patience.

Confirming evidence

  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -13.7.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Acquisition integration, contract concentration and spacecraft-delivery execution remain material risks identified by the company. [#SEC-8K-2026-08-13]
  • • Government procurement delays could push funded task orders and revenue beyond the reduced 2026 outlook. [#SEC-8K-2026-08-13]
  • • The lowered 2026 outlook, sequential backlog decline and wider Q2 net loss show that a large opportunity pipeline has not yet translated into dependable near-term earnings.

Catalyst clock

2026-12-31

Nemesis spacecraft delivery targeted for Q4

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
2
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.1
Δ21d
+0.4
Value
43
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.0
Δ21d
+0.0
Sentiment
60
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-13.7
Δ21d
-13.8
Why this grade

Composite grade D. Momentum 2.0 / Value 43.0 / Sentiment 59.6

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-10-15. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
0%
Probability
Target price
$9.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-15 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
1%
Probability
Target price
$6.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-15 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
0%
Probability
Target price
$3.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-15 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-26
Market Cap
$868.1M
Beta
-
Shares Out
137.36M
P/E (TTM) · Derived
-9.5
P/S (TTM)
-
P/FCF (TTM)
-
Rev YoY
+10.4%
EPS YoY
+62.3%
Gross Margin
-
Op Margin
-
Net Debt
$12.56M
Current Ratio
5.31
As of 2026-10-28 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data