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XPOF

Xponential FitnessA
NYSE / Consumer Services
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
The stock is near a depressed $5.03 anchor price, and a successful operational reset could improve franchisee economics, studio growth, and digital engagement. The available analyst target summary implies $6.70 median upside, but the target count is unavailable and coverage is low.
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +12.2.
What can break
2026 revenue and adjusted EBITDA guidance may be missed again after the August reduction.
Momentum
6
Value
47
Sentiment
95
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $5.40 · Bull $7.00 · Bear $3.50Analysis 2026-08-08; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-08-08 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-09

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-09. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade A · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $6.10
Why
Momentum6 · Δ7d -0.6
Value47 · Δ7d +0.0
Sentiment95 · Δ7d +12.2
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.

Confirming evidence

  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +12.2.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • 2026 revenue and adjusted EBITDA guidance may be missed again after the August reduction.
  • • Further declines in same-store sales, AUV, franchise licensing, or studio openings.
  • • The Q2 print showed worsening same-store sales, lower AUV, declining adjusted EBITDA, negative operating cash flow, and a lower 2026 outlook.

Catalyst clock

2026-08-06

Q2 results and guidance reset reinforce near-term downside

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
6
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.6
Δ21d
+1.1
Value
47
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.0
Δ21d
-4.5
Sentiment
95
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+12.2
Δ21d
+9.2
Why this grade

Composite grade A. Momentum 5.9 / Value 47.2 / Sentiment 94.9

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-08-08. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
20%
Probability
Target price
$7.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
45%
Probability
Target price
$5.40
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
35%
Probability
Target price
$3.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$250.68M
Beta
1.42
Shares Out
42.22M
P/E (TTM) · Derived
-4.0
P/S (TTM)
1.23
P/FCF (TTM)
63.10
Rev YoY
-13.4%
EPS YoY
+770.8%
Gross Margin
+78.9%
Op Margin
+22.5%
Net Debt
$478.83M
Current Ratio
0.71
As of 2026-09-09 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data