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XPER

XperiA
NYSE / Software & Services
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
The bull case is that Xperi has already built meaningful distribution: TiVo One MAUs rose above 5.3 million and AutoStage reached 14 million vehicles, while management is explicitly targeting doubled media-platform revenue and positive free cash flow in 2026. If restructuring savings and ad/data monetization show through, the equity can rerate from a low base.
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +7.8.
What can break
Liquidity is adequate but not abundant for a small-cap transition story after cash fell to $96.8 million at year-end 2025 and the company added AR-facility borrowing.
Momentum
5
Value
54
Sentiment
87
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $7.00 · Bull $9.50 · Bear $4.20Analysis 2026-04-15; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-04-15 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-09

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-09. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade A · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $11.40
Why
Momentum5 · Δ7d 0.0
Value54 · Δ7d +0.0
Sentiment87 · Δ7d +7.8
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.

Confirming evidence

  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +7.8.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Liquidity is adequate but not abundant for a small-cap transition story after cash fell to $96.8 million at year-end 2025 and the company added AR-facility borrowing.
  • • Media-platform monetization may lag footprint growth, leaving MAUs and AutoStage installs strategically interesting but financially underwhelming.
  • • The bear case is that revenue still declined to $448.1 million in 2025 from $493.7 million in 2024, the company still posted a GAAP operating loss, and the monetization story remains partly prospective.

Catalyst clock

2026-06-30

Restructuring completion should tighten the cost base by mid-2026

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
5
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
0.0
Δ21d
-9.7
Value
54
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.0
Δ21d
+10.8
Sentiment
87
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+7.8
Δ21d
+18.0
Why this grade

Composite grade A. Momentum 4.7 / Value 53.8 / Sentiment 86.7

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-04-15. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$9.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-04-15 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$7.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-04-15 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$4.20
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-04-15 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$317.02M
Beta
0.66
Shares Out
48.77M
P/E (TTM)
36.4
P/S (TTM)
0.63
P/FCF (TTM) · Derived
-19.55
Rev YoY
+8.1%
EPS YoY
-90.4%
Gross Margin
+61.6%
Op Margin
+1.0%
Net Debt
-$26.48M
Current Ratio
2.48
As of 2026-09-09 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data