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XPER

XperiC
NYSE / Software & Services
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
Q2 advertising and related revenue grew 54% year over year, TiVo One users grew 70%, and adjusted EBITDA margin rose to 21.4% from 14.4%. Sustained monetization alongside AutoStage footprint growth could support a rerating.
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -9.9.
What can break
Higher 2026 capital-expenditure guidance of approximately $25 million may weaken cash conversion despite improved adjusted EBITDA. [#SEC-8K-2026-08-05]
Momentum
7
Value
54
Sentiment
65
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $5.65 · Bull $7.20 · Bear $3.30Analysis 2026-10-18; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-23 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-23 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-10-18 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-23

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-23. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $11.40
Why
Momentum7 · Δ7d -2.4
Value54 · Δ7d +0.0
Sentiment65 · Δ7d -9.9
So what
Balanced signals (Net Neutral). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.

Confirming evidence

  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -9.9.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Higher 2026 capital-expenditure guidance of approximately $25 million may weaken cash conversion despite improved adjusted EBITDA. [#SEC-8K-2026-08-05]
  • • Minimum-guarantee agreements are expected to represent a mid-20% or slightly higher share of 2026 revenue; associated commitments warrant margin monitoring. [#8-K-2026-08-07]
  • • Q2 still produced a GAAP net loss, higher planned capital spending narrows near-term cash flexibility, and platform footprint growth may not translate into durable revenue.

Catalyst clock

2026-11-04

Third-quarter results on November 4

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
7
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-2.4
Δ21d
-4.3
Value
54
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.0
Δ21d
+0.1
Sentiment
65
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-9.9
Δ21d
-22.3
Why this grade

Composite grade C. Momentum 7.3 / Value 54.0 / Sentiment 64.9

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-10-18. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
30%
Probability
Target price
$7.20
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-18 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$5.65
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-18 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
20%
Probability
Target price
$3.30
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-18 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-23
Market Cap
$252.64M
Beta
0.66
Shares Out
48.77M
P/E (TTM)
36.4
P/S (TTM)
0.63
P/FCF (TTM) · Derived
-15.58
Rev YoY
+8.1%
EPS YoY
-90.4%
Gross Margin
+61.6%
Op Margin
+1.0%
Net Debt
-$26.48M
Current Ratio
2.48
As of 2026-10-23 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data