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XOM

ExxonmobilC
NYSE / Energy
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
Post-earnings evidence improved on the operating side: adjusted EPS beat expectation, record Guyana production and Permian strength helped offset disruption, and Golden Pass reached first LNG. The release also kept 2026 buybacks on pace at $20 billion assuming reasonable market conditions [#8-K-2026-05-01].
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Value
What changed
9 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-10-24.
What can break
A reversal in crude and gas prices could remove the macro support that helped offset war-related operational disruption in Q1.
Momentum
79
Value
49
Sentiment
49
Setup hits (3d)
9 · Net Bullish
AI TargetsBase $156.00 · Bull $170.00 · Bear $140.00Analysis 2026-05-04; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Earnings
68 · Speculative
Next 2026-10-30 · BMO
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-23 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-23 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-05-04 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Earnings Setup
As of 2026-10-25 • RankAlpha AI
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-23

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-23. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Bullish
Target $178.87
Why
Momentum79 · Δ7d -4.1
Value49 · Δ7d -0.3
Sentiment49 · Δ7d -1.1
So what
Balanced signals (Net Bullish). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.
Earnings surprise screen
68Speculative2026-10-30 bmo
View setup

Recent Zacks data showed a 10.85% 30-day EPS-consensus increase, while the current quarter consensus implies strong year-over-year EPS and revenue growth; XOM also gained about 2.77% over the five sessions through October 23 and closed near that session’s high. Higher oil prices and a rising energy-sector tape support the setup, but no recent session was verified at 1.5x normal volume, and oil-price exposure plus disagreement among EPS estimate sources keep this a speculative, incomplete setup.

Screen as of 2026-10-25. Window 2026-10-26 to 2026-10-30.

Confirming evidence

  • • 9 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-10-24.
  • • Next scheduled catalyst: earnings 2026-10-30 · BMO.
  • • Pre-earnings setup: 68 / speculative.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • A reversal in crude and gas prices could remove the macro support that helped offset war-related operational disruption in Q1.
  • • Golden Pass and other advantaged projects still need smooth ramp execution for the long-duration bull case to hold.
  • • GAAP earnings still fell to $4.2 billion from $7.7 billion a year earlier, timing effects were unusually large, and Reuters described unadjusted profit as the lowest in five years.

Catalyst clock

2026-10-30 · BMO

Q1 adjusted earnings beat with Guyana/Permian strength and Golden Pass first LNG

Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
79
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-4.1
Δ21d
+0.8
Value
49
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.3
Δ21d
-1.4
Sentiment
49
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-1.1
Δ21d
-18.9
Why this grade

Composite grade C. Momentum 78.5 / Value 49.0 / Sentiment 49.2

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-05-04. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
30%
Probability
Target price
$170.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-04 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
45%
Probability
Target price
$156.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-04 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$140.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-04 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-23
Market Cap
$753.34B
Beta
0.38
Shares Out
4.11B
P/E (TTM)
18.2
P/S (TTM)
1.63
P/FCF (TTM)
80.85
Rev YoY
+43.1%
EPS YoY
+112.8%
Gross Margin
+20.9%
Op Margin
+11.3%
Net Debt
$39.81B
Current Ratio
1.13
As of 2026-10-23 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data