B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$90.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
XMTR
XometryFNasdaq / Capital Goods
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
Primary-source evidence improved materially after the May 7, 2026 print: marketplace growth accelerated to 40% y/y, marketplace gross profit grew 53%, adjusted EBITDA turned clearly positive, and operating cash flow was $14.6M in Q1 [#8-K-2026-05-07]. The Siemens collaboration and equity investment add a credible enterprise distribution and product-embed angle [#10-Q-2026-05-07].
Posture
Defensive
Lead driver
Value
What changed
Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +0.0.
What can break
A fast post-earnings repricing leaves downside if analyst estimate revisions or target increases do not validate the move over the next several weeks.
Momentum
93
Value
34
Sentiment
29
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $66.00 · Bull $90.00 · Bear $50.00Analysis 2026-05-08; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-23 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-23 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-05-08 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-10-23
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-23
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-23. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade F · Defensive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $112.75
Why
Momentum93 · Δ7d -6.3
Value34 · Δ7d +0.0
Sentiment29 · Δ7d +2.6
So what
Weak posture (Net Neutral). Prioritize risk control and patience.
Confirming evidence
- • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +0.0.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • A fast post-earnings repricing leaves downside if analyst estimate revisions or target increases do not validate the move over the next several weeks.
- • Convertible notes current portion rose to $85.3M as of March 31, 2026, increasing balance-sheet monitoring importance even with $224M of cash and marketable securities [#10-Q-2026-05-07].
- • This is still a monitoring setup rather than a clean upgrade call.
Catalyst clock
2026-06-30
Q1 beat-and-raise needs post-print estimate follow-through
Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
93
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-6.3
Δ21d
-4.7
Value
34
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.0
Δ21d
-0.1
Sentiment
29
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+2.6
Δ21d
+8.6
Why this grade
Composite grade F. Momentum 93.0 / Value 34.1 / Sentiment 29.3
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-05-08. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
45%
Probability
Target price
$66.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
30%
Probability
Target price
$50.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-10-23
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-23
Market Cap
$5.09B
Beta
0.85
Shares Out
57.32M
P/E (TTM) · Derived
-73.1
P/S (TTM)
5.41
P/FCF (TTM) · Derived
-337.82
Rev YoY
+41.1%
EPS YoY
-81.2%
Gross Margin
+36.3%
Op Margin
-3.8%
Net Debt
$120.28M
Current Ratio
3.21
As of 2026-10-23 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data