B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$90.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
XMTR
XometryDNasdaq / Capital Goods
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
Primary-source evidence improved materially after the May 7, 2026 print: marketplace growth accelerated to 40% y/y, marketplace gross profit grew 53%, adjusted EBITDA turned clearly positive, and operating cash flow was $14.6M in Q1 [#8-K-2026-05-07]. The Siemens collaboration and equity investment add a credible enterprise distribution and product-embed angle [#10-Q-2026-05-07].
Posture
Defensive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +2.7.
What can break
A fast post-earnings repricing leaves downside if analyst estimate revisions or target increases do not validate the move over the next several weeks.
Momentum
79
Value
34
Sentiment
37
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $66.00 · Bull $90.00 · Bear $50.00Analysis 2026-05-08; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-05-08 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-09
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-09
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-09. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade D · Defensive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $111.18
Why
Momentum79 · Δ7d -5.6
Value34 · Δ7d +0.0
Sentiment37 · Δ7d +2.7
So what
Weak posture (Net Neutral). Prioritize risk control and patience.
Confirming evidence
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +2.7.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • A fast post-earnings repricing leaves downside if analyst estimate revisions or target increases do not validate the move over the next several weeks.
- • Convertible notes current portion rose to $85.3M as of March 31, 2026, increasing balance-sheet monitoring importance even with $224M of cash and marketable securities [#10-Q-2026-05-07].
- • This is still a monitoring setup rather than a clean upgrade call.
Catalyst clock
2026-06-30
Q1 beat-and-raise needs post-print estimate follow-through
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
79
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-5.6
Δ21d
+2.3
Value
34
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.0
Δ21d
+0.5
Sentiment
37
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+2.7
Δ21d
-4.8
Why this grade
Composite grade D. Momentum 79.1 / Value 34.2 / Sentiment 37.0
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-05-08. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
45%
Probability
Target price
$66.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
30%
Probability
Target price
$50.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$5.14B
Beta
0.85
Shares Out
57.32M
P/E (TTM) · Derived
-73.8
P/S (TTM)
5.41
P/FCF (TTM) · Derived
-341.05
Rev YoY
+41.1%
EPS YoY
-81.2%
Gross Margin
+36.3%
Op Margin
-3.8%
Net Debt
$120.28M
Current Ratio
3.21
As of 2026-09-09 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data