B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$12.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-24 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
XERS
Xeris BiopharmaBNasdaq / Pharmaceuticals, Biotechnology & Life Sciences
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
Recorlev's 81% second-quarter growth, improved gross margin and delivery of $385 million–$390 million FY2026 revenue guidance could support a rerating. An on-time XP-8121 Phase 3 start adds a distinct, longer-duration opportunity [#SEC-8K-2026-08-06] [#8-K-2026-09-09].
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Value
What changed
3 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-10-25.
What can break
FY2026 guidance depends on sustained Recorlev demand and the productivity of commercial investment; Q2 SG&A rose 37% year over year [#SEC-8K-2026-08-06].
Momentum
98
Value
59
Sentiment
44
Setup hits (3d)
3 · Net Bullish
AI TargetsBase $9.50 · Bull $12.00 · Bear $5.50Analysis 2026-09-24; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-23 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-23 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-09-24 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-10-23
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-23
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-23. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade B · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Bullish
Target $12.86
Why
Momentum98 · Δ7d +1.2
Value59 · Δ7d -0.1
Sentiment44 · Δ7d +2.1
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Bullish). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.
Confirming evidence
- • 3 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-10-25.
- • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.1.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • FY2026 guidance depends on sustained Recorlev demand and the productivity of commercial investment; Q2 SG&A rose 37% year over year [#SEC-8K-2026-08-06].
- • Keveyis patent protection through at least 2039 remains conditional on the allowed application being granted [#SEC-8K-2026-08-06].
- • Recorlev concentration, rising commercial and R&D spending, and a long, uncertain XP-8121 trial-to-approval path could outweigh current sales growth.
Catalyst clock
2026-12-31
FY2026 revenue-guidance delivery
Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
98
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+1.2
Δ21d
+13.9
Value
59
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.1
Δ21d
-1.2
Sentiment
44
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+2.1
Δ21d
-20.9
Why this grade
Composite grade B. Momentum 98.5 / Value 59.3 / Sentiment 44.1
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-09-24. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$9.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-24 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$5.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-24 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-10-23
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-23
Market Cap
$1.86B
Beta
0.64
Shares Out
182.32M
P/E (TTM) · Derived
3000.0
P/S (TTM)
4.42
P/FCF (TTM)
117.94
Rev YoY
+28.7%
EPS YoY
+1387.6%
Gross Margin
+83.3%
Op Margin
+10.9%
Net Debt
$147.06M
Current Ratio
1.45
As of 2026-10-23 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data