B+
Bull case
0%
Probability
Target price
$31.80
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-03 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
WY
WeyerhaeuserCNYSE / Equity Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs)
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
The positive read is that Q1 showed a real sequential rebound: net sales rose to $1.727 billion from $1.541 billion in Q4, Adjusted EBITDA more than doubled sequentially to $308 million, Wood Products returned to positive earnings before special items, and Strategic Land Solutions kept its full-year 2026 Adjusted EBITDA outlook near $425 million [#8-K-2026-04-30].
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +11.7.
What can break
Adjusted FAD was negative $58 million in Q1 even after the earnings rebound, while cash dividends were $151 million and capital expenditures remained elevated.
Momentum
29
Value
60
Sentiment
66
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $27.50 · Bull $31.80 · Bear $21.00Analysis 2026-05-03; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-05-03 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-09
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-09
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-09. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $31.00
Why
Momentum29 · Δ7d -16.0
Value60 · Δ7d -
Sentiment66 · Δ7d +11.7
So what
Balanced signals (Net Neutral). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.
Confirming evidence
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +11.7.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Adjusted FAD was negative $58 million in Q1 even after the earnings rebound, while cash dividends were $151 million and capital expenditures remained elevated.
- • Management flagged elevated macro uncertainty and a housing market that remains uneven, leaving lumber and panel pricing vulnerable to affordability and demand swings.
- • The cautious read is that Q1 quality was helped by special items and lumpy land activity: net earnings included a $58 million gain on Virginia timberlands and a $21 million product-remediation insurance recovery, while Strategic Land Solutions benefited from a $94 million conservation easement and is already guided down materially for Q2 [#8-K-2026-04-30] [#10-Q-2026-05-01].
Catalyst clock
2026-07-30
Portfolio monetization proceeds support capital-allocation flexibility
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
29
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-16.0
Δ21d
-33.0
Value
60
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
-
Δ21d
-
Sentiment
66
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+11.7
Δ21d
+7.8
Why this grade
Composite grade C. Momentum 28.9 / Value 60.5 / Sentiment 65.6
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-05-03. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
1%
Probability
Target price
$27.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-03 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
0%
Probability
Target price
$21.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-03 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$17.36B
Beta
1.03
Shares Out
720.74M
P/E (TTM)
53.1
P/S (TTM)
2.47
P/FCF (TTM) · Derived
-16.60
Rev YoY
-0.9%
EPS YoY
+86.7%
Gross Margin
+14.5%
Op Margin
+6.2%
Net Debt
$5.25B
Current Ratio
1.82
As of 2026-09-09 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data