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WNC

Wabash NationalF
NYSE / Capital Goods
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
The bullish read is that Q1 may mark a trough: backlog increased sequentially, Parts & Services still grew year over year, and Q2 guidance implies material improvement from the Q1 loss profile if production normalizes [#8-K-2026-05-01].
Posture
Defensive
Lead driver
Value
What changed
1 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-09-09.
What can break
Backlog improved sequentially, but conversion quality matters; a challenging near-term market means backlog may not translate into timely or profitable shipments [#8-K-2026-05-01].
Momentum
94
Value
38
Sentiment
16
Setup hits (3d)
1 · Net Bullish
AI TargetsBase $8.00 · Bull $11.00 · Bear $5.00Analysis 2026-05-05; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-10 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-05-05 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-10

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-10. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade F · Defensive
Confidence Medium · Net Bullish
Target $22.50
Why
Momentum94 · Δ7d +11.2
Value38 · Δ7d -0.0
Sentiment16 · Δ7d +8.0
So what
Weak posture (Net Bullish). Prioritize risk control and patience.

Confirming evidence

  • • 1 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-09-09.
  • • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.0.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Backlog improved sequentially, but conversion quality matters; a challenging near-term market means backlog may not translate into timely or profitable shipments [#8-K-2026-05-01].
  • • Coverage is thin and revision visibility is limited, so there is less external confirmation on whether the May 1, 2026 outlook is conservative enough.
  • • The bearish read is that management already missed its own Q1 guide, Truck Body demand stayed soft, and Transportation Solutions posted a steep operating loss, so recovery timing remains uncertain and the stock can stay trapped in a low-visibility penalty box [#8-K-2026-05-01].

Catalyst clock

2026-08-01

Q2 recovery checkpoint against May guidance

Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
94
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+11.2
Δ21d
+20.2
Value
38
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.0
Δ21d
-20.8
Sentiment
16
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+8.0
Δ21d
-3.9
Why this grade

Composite grade F. Momentum 94.0 / Value 38.1 / Sentiment 16.3

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-05-05. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$11.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-05 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
45%
Probability
Target price
$8.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-05 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
30%
Probability
Target price
$5.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-05 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$518.58M
Beta
1.66
Shares Out
40.74M
P/E (TTM)
1.5
P/S (TTM)
0.23
P/FCF (TTM)
7.69
Rev YoY
-9.1%
EPS YoY
+143.5%
Gross Margin
-0.1%
Op Margin
-5.1%
Net Debt
$447.43M
Current Ratio
1.31
As of 2026-09-10 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data