B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$235.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-01 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
WM
Waste ManagementDNYSE / Commercial & Professional Services
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
Q2 core price rose 5.7%, adjusted EBITDA margin expanded 40 basis points, and free cash flow rose 34.5% year over year. Continued price-to-cost gains and contributions from completed facilities could preserve 2026 cash targets despite softer volumes.
Posture
Defensive
Lead driver
Value
What changed
3 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-10-24.
What can break
CEO succession creates execution and capital-allocation uncertainty even though the successor is an existing executive. [#8-K-2026-08-26]
Momentum
63
Value
50
Sentiment
43
Setup hits (3d)
3 · Net Bullish
AI TargetsBase $214.00 · Bull $235.00 · Bear $180.00Analysis 2026-10-01; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Earnings
46 · Non-qualifying
Next 2026-10-27 · AMC
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-23 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-23 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-10-01 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Earnings Setup
As of 2026-10-25 • RankAlpha AI
Investment thesisAs of 2026-10-23
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-23
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-23. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade D · Defensive
Confidence Medium · Net Bullish
Target $254.26
Why
Momentum63 · Δ7d +19.4
Value50 · Δ7d -0.1
Sentiment43 · Δ7d -4.2
So what
Weak posture (Net Bullish). Prioritize risk control and patience.
Earnings surprise screen
46Non-qualifying2026-10-27 amc
WM showed strong short-term price strength, including an Oct 22 high close location, and its waste collection and pricing model remains resilient. However, the available EPS whisper equals consensus, Q2 management lowered full-year revenue guidance on lower volume expectations, and the Q3 revenue estimate is above the reduced guidance range; the evidence does not support an upside surprise setup.
Screen as of 2026-10-25. Window 2026-10-26 to 2026-10-30.
Confirming evidence
- • 3 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-10-24.
- • Next scheduled catalyst: earnings 2026-10-27 · AMC.
- • Pre-earnings setup: 46 / non-qualifying.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • CEO succession creates execution and capital-allocation uncertainty even though the successor is an existing executive. [#8-K-2026-08-26]
- • Fuel costs, weaker recycling commodity prices and delayed returns from new facilities could pressure profitability. [#SEC-8K-2026-07-28]
- • The revenue-outlook cut reflects lower volume expectations.
Catalyst clock
2026-10-27 · AMC
Third-quarter results and volume update
Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
63
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+19.4
Δ21d
+22.9
Value
50
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.1
Δ21d
-0.7
Sentiment
43
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-4.2
Δ21d
-25.9
Why this grade
Composite grade D. Momentum 63.5 / Value 50.2 / Sentiment 43.3
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-10-01. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
55%
Probability
Target price
$214.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-01 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
20%
Probability
Target price
$180.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-01 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-10-23
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-23
Market Cap
$95.68B
Beta
0.58
Shares Out
399.72M
P/E (TTM)
34.6
P/S (TTM)
3.57
P/FCF (TTM)
80.37
Rev YoY
+4.0%
EPS YoY
+8.6%
Gross Margin
+29.1%
Op Margin
+18.5%
Net Debt
$23.61B
Current Ratio
0.91
As of 2026-10-23 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data