B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$4.80
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
VTEX
VTEXANYSE / Software & Services
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
The strongest fresh evidence is operational: Q1 2026 GMV rose 17.1% in USD, subscription revenue rose 14.0% in USD, and non-GAAP operating income and free cash flow both roughly doubled year over year, while the company continues to buy back stock [#6K-2026-05-07-PR].
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +6.1.
What can break
FX-neutral subscription growth remained only 4.2% in Q1 2026, so stronger USD growth may not fully reflect underlying demand momentum [#6K-2026-05-07-PR].
Momentum
9
Value
64
Sentiment
79
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $4.10 · Bull $4.80 · Bear $3.20Analysis 2026-05-08; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-10 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-05-08 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-10
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-10
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-10. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade A · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $5.41
Why
Momentum9 · Δ7d -6.2
Value64 · Δ7d +0.9
Sentiment79 · Δ7d +6.1
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.
Confirming evidence
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +6.1.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • FX-neutral subscription growth remained only 4.2% in Q1 2026, so stronger USD growth may not fully reflect underlying demand momentum [#6K-2026-05-07-PR].
- • Low coverage and limited T+1 analyst revision visibility reduce confidence in reading the post-earnings move as a durable signal rather than an initial reaction.
- • The key limitation is that underlying growth was still modest on an FX-neutral basis at 4.2% for subscription revenue, and the stock traded about 4.9% below the prior close on May 8, 2026 despite the profit improvement, implying investors likely want clearer evidence that AI and B2B initiatives can reaccelerate growth.
Catalyst clock
2026-08-01
Post-Q1 follow-through now hinges on whether AI-led wins can lift FX-neutral growth in the next print
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
9
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-6.2
Δ21d
-12.0
Value
64
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.9
Δ21d
+6.0
Sentiment
79
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+6.1
Δ21d
+2.6
Why this grade
Composite grade A. Momentum 8.7 / Value 63.7 / Sentiment 79.2
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-05-08. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$4.10
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$3.20
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$593.66M
Beta
1.34
Shares Out
168.18M
P/E (TTM)
42.2
P/S (TTM)
2.81
P/FCF (TTM)
19.53
Rev YoY
+9.5%
EPS YoY
+261.9%
Gross Margin
+78.1%
Op Margin
+12.7%
Net Debt
-$189.22M
Current Ratio
2.89
As of 2026-09-10 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data