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VTEX

VTEXA
NYSE / Software & Services
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
The strongest fresh evidence is operational: Q1 2026 GMV rose 17.1% in USD, subscription revenue rose 14.0% in USD, and non-GAAP operating income and free cash flow both roughly doubled year over year, while the company continues to buy back stock [#6K-2026-05-07-PR].
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +9.8.
What can break
FX-neutral subscription growth remained only 4.2% in Q1 2026, so stronger USD growth may not fully reflect underlying demand momentum [#6K-2026-05-07-PR].
Momentum
8
Value
63
Sentiment
82
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $4.10 · Bull $4.80 · Bear $3.20Analysis 2026-05-08; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-05-08 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-09

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-09. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade A · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $5.41
Why
Momentum8 · Δ7d +0.3
Value63 · Δ7d +0.0
Sentiment82 · Δ7d +9.8
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.

Confirming evidence

  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +9.8.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • FX-neutral subscription growth remained only 4.2% in Q1 2026, so stronger USD growth may not fully reflect underlying demand momentum [#6K-2026-05-07-PR].
  • • Low coverage and limited T+1 analyst revision visibility reduce confidence in reading the post-earnings move as a durable signal rather than an initial reaction.
  • • The key limitation is that underlying growth was still modest on an FX-neutral basis at 4.2% for subscription revenue, and the stock traded about 4.9% below the prior close on May 8, 2026 despite the profit improvement, implying investors likely want clearer evidence that AI and B2B initiatives can reaccelerate growth.

Catalyst clock

2026-08-01

Post-Q1 follow-through now hinges on whether AI-led wins can lift FX-neutral growth in the next print

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
8
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+0.3
Δ21d
-30.4
Value
63
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.0
Δ21d
+5.2
Sentiment
82
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+9.8
Δ21d
+1.9
Why this grade

Composite grade A. Momentum 8.1 / Value 62.8 / Sentiment 82.1

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-05-08. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$4.80
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$4.10
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$3.20
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$593.66M
Beta
1.34
Shares Out
168.18M
P/E (TTM)
42.2
P/S (TTM)
2.81
P/FCF (TTM)
19.53
Rev YoY
+9.5%
EPS YoY
+261.9%
Gross Margin
+78.1%
Op Margin
+12.7%
Net Debt
-$189.22M
Current Ratio
2.89
As of 2026-09-09 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data