B+
Bull case
30%
Probability
Target price
$620.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-06 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
VRTX
VertexANasdaq / Pharmaceuticals, Biotechnology & Life Sciences
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
The guide-up, revenue above the pre-release Zacks forecast, continued CF demand, ALYFTREK uptake, and growing CASGEVY/JOURNAVX contribution support a constructive commercial thesis. Povetacicept and the Crinetics transaction add potential diversification.
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
3 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-09-09.
What can break
FY2026 guidance depends on continued ALYFTREK and TRIKAFTA growth and at least $500 million of non-CF revenue.
Momentum
65
Value
62
Sentiment
71
Setup hits (3d)
3 · Net Bullish
AI TargetsBase $563.83 · Bull $620.00 · Bear $430.00Analysis 2026-08-06; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-10 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-08-06 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-10
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-10
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-10. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade A · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Bullish
Target $574.32
Why
Momentum65 · Δ7d -18.9
Value62 · Δ7d -0.0
Sentiment71 · Δ7d +11.0
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Bullish). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.
Confirming evidence
- • 3 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-09-09.
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +11.0.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • FY2026 guidance depends on continued ALYFTREK and TRIKAFTA growth and at least $500 million of non-CF revenue.
- • Higher commercial and renal-franchise investment may pressure margins if revenue growth slows.
- • The near-term thesis remains exposed to ALYFTREK and non-CF execution, the binary povetacicept decision, and acquisition closing or integration.
Catalyst clock
2026-08-03
Q2 revenue growth and FY2026 guidance increase
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
65
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-18.9
Δ21d
+1.4
Value
62
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.0
Δ21d
+0.4
Sentiment
71
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+11.0
Δ21d
+6.4
Why this grade
Composite grade A. Momentum 65.4 / Value 61.9 / Sentiment 71.4
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-08-06. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$563.83
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-06 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
20%
Probability
Target price
$430.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-06 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$130.67B
Beta
0.31
Shares Out
253.46M
P/E (TTM)
31.5
P/S (TTM)
9.71
P/FCF (TTM)
34.12
Rev YoY
+12.0%
EPS YoY
+8.0%
Gross Margin
+86.1%
Op Margin
+39.5%
Net Debt
-$4.58B
Current Ratio
3.19
As of 2026-09-10 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data