B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$585.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-14 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
VRTX
VertexBNasdaq / Pharmaceuticals, Biotechnology & Life Sciences
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
Second-quarter revenue rose 12% to $3.33 billion, and Vertex raised 2026 revenue guidance to $13.1 billion–$13.2 billion. Continued CF demand, newer-product uptake and a favorable renal decision could support diversification.
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Value
What changed
3 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-10-29.
What can break
A delayed, adverse or narrow povetacicept decision could impair the nephrology expansion thesis.
Momentum
75
Value
61
Sentiment
55
Setup hits (3d)
3 · Net Bullish
AI TargetsBase $510.00 · Bull $585.00 · Bear $400.00Analysis 2026-10-14; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Earnings
57 · Near miss
Next 2026-11-02 · AMC
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-29 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-28 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-10-14 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Earnings Setup
As of 2026-10-30 • RankAlpha AI
Investment thesisAs of 2026-10-28
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-28
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-28. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade B · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Bullish
Target $575.96
Why
Momentum75 · Δ7d -19.6
Value61 · Δ7d -0.2
Sentiment55 · Δ7d -0.3
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Bullish). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.
Earnings surprise screen
57Near miss2026-11-02 amc
Three-month EPS revisions are negative despite a small one-month uptick, while revenue estimates rose modestly; recent shares strengthened and the sector tape was positive. No recent 1.5x-volume confirmation was found, so the positive estimate and tape evidence does not meet the required accumulation check.
Screen as of 2026-10-30. Window 2026-10-30 to 2026-11-05.
Confirming evidence
- • 3 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-10-29.
- • Next scheduled catalyst: earnings 2026-11-02 · AMC.
- • Pre-earnings setup: 57 / near miss.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • A delayed, adverse or narrow povetacicept decision could impair the nephrology expansion thesis.
- • CF remains the principal revenue driver, while diversification products must demonstrate durable uptake.
- • Renal approval and pivotal-trial outcomes remain uncertain.
Catalyst clock
2026-11-02 · AMC
Crinetics economics in the November 2 results
Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
75
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-19.6
Δ21d
-6.7
Value
61
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.2
Δ21d
-0.8
Sentiment
55
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.3
Δ21d
-16.1
Why this grade
Composite grade B. Momentum 75.1 / Value 60.6 / Sentiment 55.0
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-10-14. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$510.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-14 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$400.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-14 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-10-29
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-29
Market Cap
$136.87B
Beta
0.31
Shares Out
253.46M
P/E (TTM)
31.5
P/S (TTM)
9.71
P/FCF (TTM)
34.12
Rev YoY
+12.0%
EPS YoY
+8.0%
Gross Margin
+86.1%
Op Margin
+39.5%
Net Debt
-$4.58B
Current Ratio
3.19
As of 2026-10-28 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data