B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$10.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
VNDA
VandaANasdaq / Pharmaceuticals, Biotechnology & Life Sciences
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
Fanapt momentum, BYSANTI approval and launch potential, NEREUS commercialization, a defined Quimilza FDA decision, and multiple late-stage readouts create several company-specific upside paths. The disclosed cash runway reduces near-term financing pressure [#SEC-8K-2026-08-05].
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +0.6.
What can break
Analyst coverage and peer comparability are limited; no reliable post-print target or estimate revision evidence was available.
Momentum
16
Value
41
Sentiment
98
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $6.50 · Bull $10.50 · Bear $3.25Analysis 2026-08-08; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-08 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-08-08 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-08
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-08
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-08. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade A · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $12.19
Why
Momentum16 · Δ7d +1.4
Value41 · Δ7d -0.0
Sentiment98 · Δ7d +0.6
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.
Confirming evidence
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +0.6.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Analyst coverage and peer comparability are limited; no reliable post-print target or estimate revision evidence was available.
- • BYSANTI, NEREUS, and future launches may face slower-than-expected uptake or commercialization costs.
- • Portfolio sales were down year over year because of severe HETLIOZ pressure, the Q2 pretax loss widened materially, cash declined by $32.3 million during the quarter, and the upcoming regulatory and clinical events remain binary.
Catalyst clock
2026-08-05
Q2 2026 earnings reset: strong Fanapt, mixed portfolio results
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
16
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+1.4
Δ21d
+6.0
Value
41
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.0
Δ21d
+0.1
Sentiment
98
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+0.6
Δ21d
-4.1
Why this grade
Composite grade A. Momentum 15.6 / Value 41.2 / Sentiment 98.1
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-08-08. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$6.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$3.25
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$318.03M
Beta
0.63
Shares Out
60.46M
P/E (TTM) · Derived
-1.4
P/S (TTM)
2.19
P/FCF (TTM) · Derived
-2.19
Rev YoY
-3.9%
EPS YoY
+125.1%
Gross Margin
+89.3%
Op Margin
-86.1%
Net Debt
-$251.33M
Current Ratio
1.61
As of 2026-09-08 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data