B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$6.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-22 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
VNDA
VandaDNasdaq / Pharmaceuticals, Biotechnology & Life Sciences
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
Fanapt Q2 sales rose 23% year over year to $36.0 million, while Vanda reported $170.0 million of June-end cash and expected funding through at least 2027. Quimilza approval, a positive NEREUS readout, or progress toward a HETLIOZ sNDA could support upside.
Posture
Defensive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Next scheduled catalyst: earnings 2026-10-28 · AMC.
What can break
Q2 total net product sales declined 4% year over year despite Fanapt growth; launch spending and the expected later expense moderation remain execution risks. [#SEC-8K-2026-08-05].
Momentum
13
Value
41
Sentiment
61
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $4.40 · Bull $6.00 · Bear $2.50Analysis 2026-10-22; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Earnings
2026-10-28 · AMC
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-23 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-23 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-10-22 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-10-23
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-23
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-23. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade D · Defensive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $11.75
Why
Momentum13 · Δ7d -3.9
Value41 · Δ7d -0.1
Sentiment61 · Δ7d -32.2
So what
Weak posture (Net Neutral). Prioritize risk control and patience.
Confirming evidence
- • Next scheduled catalyst: earnings 2026-10-28 · AMC.
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -32.2.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Q2 total net product sales declined 4% year over year despite Fanapt growth; launch spending and the expected later expense moderation remain execution risks. [#SEC-8K-2026-08-05].
- • Quimilza could receive an FDA delay or rejection on its December 12 target date. [#SEC-8K-2026-08-05].
- • The October 14 Phase III VQW-765 study missed both its primary and key secondary endpoints, and Vanda placed the social-anxiety program on hold pending full-data analysis.
Catalyst clock
2026-10-28 · AMC
Quimilza FDA decision
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
13
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-3.9
Δ21d
-7.4
Value
41
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.1
Δ21d
-0.4
Sentiment
61
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-32.2
Δ21d
-26.3
Why this grade
Composite grade D. Momentum 12.7 / Value 40.6 / Sentiment 61.2
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-10-22. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
45%
Probability
Target price
$4.40
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-22 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
30%
Probability
Target price
$2.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-22 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-10-23
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-23
Market Cap
$242.46M
Beta
0.63
Shares Out
60.46M
P/E (TTM) · Derived
-1.1
P/S (TTM)
2.19
P/FCF (TTM) · Derived
-1.67
Rev YoY
-3.9%
EPS YoY
+125.1%
Gross Margin
+89.3%
Op Margin
-86.1%
Net Debt
-$251.33M
Current Ratio
1.61
As of 2026-10-23 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data