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VMC

Vulcan MaterialsB
NYSE / Materials
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
Q2 showed pricing power and operating discipline: mix-adjusted aggregates pricing rose 5%, cash gross profit per ton exceeded $12, and management reaffirmed a $2.4 billion to $2.6 billion adjusted EBITDA outlook despite weather and energy pressure. Portfolio expansion and below-target leverage support longer-term optionality.
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Next scheduled catalyst: earnings 2026-10-29 · BMO.
What can break
Acquisition and greenfield execution, integration, and capital-allocation risk.
Momentum
63
Value
50
Sentiment
63
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $285.00 · Bull $325.00 · Bear $235.00Analysis 2026-08-03; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Earnings
2026-10-29 · BMO
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-26 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-26 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-08-03 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-26

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-26. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade B · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $310.39
Why
Momentum63 · Δ7d +29.1
Value50 · Δ7d -0.4
Sentiment63 · Δ7d -4.3
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.

Confirming evidence

  • • Next scheduled catalyst: earnings 2026-10-29 · BMO.
  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -4.3.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Acquisition and greenfield execution, integration, and capital-allocation risk.
  • • Energy inflation and higher unit costs could offset pricing gains.
  • • The outlook was reaffirmed rather than raised, shipments were constrained by wet weather, reported aggregates unit cash costs increased 7%, and adjusted EBITDA was approximately flat year over year because of energy headwinds.

Catalyst clock

2026-10-29 · BMO

Q2 earnings growth with reaffirmed guidance

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
63
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+29.1
Δ21d
+42.5
Value
50
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.4
Δ21d
-1.1
Sentiment
63
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-4.3
Δ21d
-20.8
Why this grade

Composite grade B. Momentum 63.4 / Value 50.3 / Sentiment 62.7

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-08-03. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$325.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-03 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
55%
Probability
Target price
$285.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-03 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
20%
Probability
Target price
$235.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-03 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-26
Market Cap
$33.88B
Beta
1.07
Shares Out
129.58M
P/E (TTM)
35.1
P/S (TTM)
4.97
P/FCF (TTM)
49.09
Rev YoY
+2.5%
EPS YoY
+2.8%
Gross Margin
+27.5%
Op Margin
+20.7%
Net Debt
$4.75B
Current Ratio
1.76
As of 2026-10-26 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data