B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$325.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-03 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
VMC
Vulcan MaterialsCNYSE / Materials
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
Q2 showed pricing power and operating discipline: mix-adjusted aggregates pricing rose 5%, cash gross profit per ton exceeded $12, and management reaffirmed a $2.4 billion to $2.6 billion adjusted EBITDA outlook despite weather and energy pressure. Portfolio expansion and below-target leverage support longer-term optionality.
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +10.3.
What can break
Acquisition and greenfield execution, integration, and capital-allocation risk.
Momentum
18
Value
51
Sentiment
72
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $285.00 · Bull $325.00 · Bear $235.00Analysis 2026-08-03; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-10 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-08-03 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-10
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-10
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-10. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $328.48
Why
Momentum18 · Δ7d -6.4
Value51 · Δ7d 0.0
Sentiment72 · Δ7d +10.3
So what
Balanced signals (Net Neutral). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.
Confirming evidence
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +10.3.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Acquisition and greenfield execution, integration, and capital-allocation risk.
- • Energy inflation and higher unit costs could offset pricing gains.
- • The outlook was reaffirmed rather than raised, shipments were constrained by wet weather, reported aggregates unit cash costs increased 7%, and adjusted EBITDA was approximately flat year over year because of energy headwinds.
Catalyst clock
2026-08-14
Q2 earnings growth with reaffirmed guidance
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
18
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-6.4
Δ21d
-4.0
Value
51
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
0.0
Δ21d
-1.1
Sentiment
72
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+10.3
Δ21d
+12.3
Why this grade
Composite grade C. Momentum 17.7 / Value 50.7 / Sentiment 72.2
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-08-03. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
55%
Probability
Target price
$285.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-03 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
20%
Probability
Target price
$235.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-03 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$36.04B
Beta
1.07
Shares Out
129.58M
P/E (TTM)
35.1
P/S (TTM)
4.97
P/FCF (TTM)
49.09
Rev YoY
+2.5%
EPS YoY
+2.8%
Gross Margin
+27.5%
Op Margin
+20.7%
Net Debt
$4.75B
Current Ratio
1.76
As of 2026-09-10 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data