B+
Bull case
30%
Probability
Target price
$46.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-06-11 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
VLGEA
Village Super MarketCNasdaq / Consumer Staples Distribution & Retail
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
The constructive read is that Q3 looked worse on reported comps than on underlying demand: excluding storm effects, same-store sales were positive, digital sales still grew, recently replaced/remodeled stores were contributing, liquidity remained solid, and debt was manageable versus cash and Wakefern-linked receivables [#SEC-10Q-2026-06-03].
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -4.5.
What can break
Gross-margin pressure was visible in Q3 from lower patronage dividends/rebates, higher warehouse charges, unfavorable mix, and promotions [#SEC-10Q-2026-06-03].
Momentum
36
Value
67
Sentiment
55
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $41.00 · Bull $46.00 · Bear $33.00Analysis 2026-06-11; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-10 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-06-11 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-10
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-10
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-10. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Why
Momentum36 · Δ7d -3.0
Value67 · Δ7d 0.0
Sentiment55 · Δ7d -4.5
So what
Balanced signals (Net Neutral). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.
Confirming evidence
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -4.5.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Gross-margin pressure was visible in Q3 from lower patronage dividends/rebates, higher warehouse charges, unfavorable mix, and promotions [#SEC-10Q-2026-06-03].
- • Operating expense deleverage remains a risk if traffic stays uneven or weather/store disruptions recur, especially after Q3 closures tied to Winter Storm Fern [#PR-EARNINGS-2026-06-02].
- • The cautious read is that even with weather normalization, Q3 exposed a fragile margin bridge: gross margin was hit by lower Wakefern dividends/rebates, higher warehouse charges, mix pressure, and promotions, while opex deleveraged on closures and higher utility, maintenance, professional-fee, insurance, and labor costs [#PR-EARNINGS-2026-06-02] [#SEC-10Q-2026-06-03].
Catalyst clock
2026-10-09
FY2026 close should test whether Q3 sales softness was mostly weather-related or a deeper traffic/margin issue
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
36
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-3.0
Δ21d
+14.1
Value
67
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
0.0
Δ21d
-1.8
Sentiment
55
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-4.5
Δ21d
-6.6
Why this grade
Composite grade C. Momentum 36.3 / Value 67.5 / Sentiment 54.8
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-06-11. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
45%
Probability
Target price
$41.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-06-11 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$33.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-06-11 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$571.94M
Beta
0.51
Shares Out
13.36M
P/E (TTM)
9.2
P/S (TTM)
0.22
P/FCF (TTM)
33.40
Rev YoY
+1.6%
EPS YoY
-19.4%
Gross Margin
+26.7%
Op Margin
+2.9%
Net Debt
$230.32M
Current Ratio
1.17
As of 2026-09-10 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data