B+
Bull case
20%
Probability
Target price
$90.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-01-27 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
VIST
Vista Energy SAB de CVCNYSE / Energy
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
Sustained oil & gas price strength, successful asset monetizations, and execution-led production gains drive a re-rating toward the upper analyst range, supporting upside to $90+ within 12 months.
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
3 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-09-09.
What can break
Commodity & execution risk: Prolonged commodity-price weakness or unexpected production delays would materially reduce cash flows and valuations; near-term earnings could trigger a sharp re-rating. Coverage and consensus notes highlight commodity sensitivity and execution as primary downside drivers [#SERP-1][#SERP-9].
Momentum
67
Value
60
Sentiment
57
Setup hits (3d)
3 · Net Bullish
AI TargetsBase $62.00 · Bull $90.00 · Bear $49.04Analysis 2026-01-27; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-01-27 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-09
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-09
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-09. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Bullish
Target $94.34
Why
Momentum67 · Δ7d +27.5
Value60 · Δ7d +0.0
Sentiment57 · Δ7d +3.4
So what
Balanced signals (Net Bullish). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.
Confirming evidence
- • 3 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-09-09.
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +3.4.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Commodity & execution risk: Prolonged commodity-price weakness or unexpected production delays would materially reduce cash flows and valuations; near-term earnings could trigger a sharp re-rating. Coverage and consensus notes highlight commodity sensitivity and execution as primary downside drivers [#SERP-1][#SERP-9].
- • Regulatory, fiscal and FX risk: Changes to Mexico's fiscal or regulatory regime, adverse hedging outcomes, or significant FX moves could compress margins and raise capital costs, amplifying downside. Market snippets call out Mexico-specific policy risk as a key contingent factor for Vista Energy [#SERP-1].
- • Weaker commodity prices, project delays, or Mexican regulatory headwinds compress cash flow and push the share toward the analyst low near $49.04.
Catalyst clock
2026-02-26
FY2025 earnings release
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
67
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+27.5
Δ21d
+15.9
Value
60
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.0
Δ21d
+6.2
Sentiment
57
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+3.4
Δ21d
-7.5
Why this grade
Composite grade C. Momentum 66.8 / Value 60.0 / Sentiment 56.5
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-01-27. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
60%
Probability
Target price
$62.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-01-27 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
B-
Bear case
20%
Probability
Target price
$49.04
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-01-27 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$8B
Beta
0.82
Shares Out
111.02M
P/E (TTM)
7.0
P/S (TTM)
2.22
P/FCF (TTM) · Derived
111.01
Rev YoY
+99.2%
EPS YoY
+28.9%
Gross Margin
+52.6%
Op Margin
+38.0%
Net Debt
$2.76B
Current Ratio
0.69
As of 2026-09-09 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data