RankAlpha logo
Back to Rankings

VALE

ValeC
NYSE / Materials
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
View Chart
Current thesis
Vale reported 2Q26 iron-ore sales of 79.7 Mt, up 3% year over year, and copper production of 98.4 kt, up 6%. Its 2Q26 release reported US$4.1 billion pro forma EBITDA and US$1.505 billion recurring free cash flow.
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Value
What changed
1 setup hits (3d) with net bearish as of 2026-10-26.
What can break
Iron-ore realized prices, freight, fuel and BRL movements could overwhelm volume gains; Vale raised 2026 iron-ore cost ranges in its 2Q26 release. Vale results
Momentum
34
Value
57
Sentiment
58
Setup hits (3d)
1 · Net Bearish
AI TargetsBase $12.20 · Bull $14.50 · Bear $9.50Analysis 2026-10-23; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-26 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-26 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-10-23 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-26

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-26. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Bearish
Target $16.28
Why
Momentum34 · Δ7d -6.4
Value57 · Δ7d +0.1
Sentiment58 · Δ7d -28.6
So what
Balanced signals (Net Bearish). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.

Confirming evidence

  • • 1 setup hits (3d) with net bearish as of 2026-10-26.
  • • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +0.1.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Iron-ore realized prices, freight, fuel and BRL movements could overwhelm volume gains; Vale raised 2026 iron-ore cost ranges in its 2Q26 release. Vale results
  • • Mariana reparation and related litigation may consume cash. Vale reports 50% Samarco ownership and a BRL 14.4 billion provision for these obligations as of December 31, 2025; that historical provision is not a current cash-flow forecast. [#REL-d28da50e-7a4d-459e-8551-152fd4cdec30] Vale reparation disclosure
  • • The same results showed higher iron-ore cost guidance and US$16.7 billion expanded net debt at quarter-end.

Catalyst clock

2026-10-29

October 29 integrated 3Q26 results

Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
34
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-6.4
Δ21d
+5.5
Value
57
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.1
Δ21d
+0.3
Sentiment
58
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-28.6
Δ21d
-30.5
Why this grade

Composite grade C. Momentum 33.7 / Value 57.0 / Sentiment 57.5

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-10-23. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$14.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-23 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$12.20
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-23 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$9.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-23 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-26
Market Cap
$47.39B
Beta
0.63
Shares Out
4.07B
P/E (TTM)
10.3
P/S (TTM)
1.56
P/FCF (TTM) · Derived
-84.50
Rev YoY
+19.4%
EPS YoY
-36.3%
Gross Margin
+34.3%
Op Margin
+28.3%
Net Debt
$11.28B
Current Ratio
1.19
As of 2026-10-26 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data