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VALE

ValeC
NYSE / Materials
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
Bull case: sustained iron-ore rally, better-than-expected production/guidance and stronger shareholder returns (dividends/buybacks) push valuation materially above current levels.
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
3 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-09-09.
What can break
Major operational incident, production shortfall or regulatory action in Brazil
Momentum
46
Value
57
Sentiment
65
Setup hits (3d)
3 · Net Bullish
AI TargetsBase $15.75 · Bull $20.09 · Bear $12.00Analysis 2026-02-01; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-02-01 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-09

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-09. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Bullish
Target $16.81
Why
Momentum46 · Δ7d +16.8
Value57 · Δ7d 0.0
Sentiment65 · Δ7d +2.7
So what
Balanced signals (Net Bullish). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.

Confirming evidence

  • • 3 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-09-09.
  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +2.7.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Major operational incident, production shortfall or regulatory action in Brazil
  • • Prolonged China steel slowdown leading to sustained iron-ore price weakness
  • • Bear case: prolonged China demand weakness, lower seaborne iron-ore realizations and operational/regulatory setbacks compress margins and cash flow, dragging the stock toward the low-end of analyst ranges.

Catalyst clock

2026-02-12

FY2025 earnings release

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
46
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+16.8
Δ21d
+22.2
Value
57
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
0.0
Δ21d
+1.0
Sentiment
65
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+2.7
Δ21d
-16.0
Why this grade

Composite grade C. Momentum 45.5 / Value 57.2 / Sentiment 65.0

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-02-01. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
20%
Probability
Target price
$20.09
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-02-01 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Most likely
B
Base case
60%
Probability
Target price
$15.75
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-02-01 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
B-
Bear case
20%
Probability
Target price
$12.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-02-01 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$57.24B
Beta
0.63
Shares Out
4.26B
P/E (TTM)
10.3
P/S (TTM)
1.56
P/FCF (TTM) · Derived
-97.67
Rev YoY
+19.4%
EPS YoY
-36.3%
Gross Margin
+34.3%
Op Margin
+28.3%
Net Debt
$11.28B
Current Ratio
1.19
As of 2026-09-09 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data