B+
Bull case
20%
Probability
Target price
$52.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-07-29 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
VABK
Virginia National BanksharesCNasdaq / Banks
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
Reported Q2 operating metrics improved across profitability, NIM, efficiency, asset quality, and capital/liquidity, while the dividend remains supportive. [#SEC-8K-2026-07-23]
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Value
What changed
Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +0.4.
What can break
Loan balances declined year over year and deposits declined from December 2025.
Momentum
47
Value
54
Sentiment
51
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $46.00 · Bull $52.00 · Bear $39.00Analysis 2026-07-29; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-27 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-27 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-07-29 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-10-27
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-27
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-27. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Why
Momentum47 · Δ7d -
Value54 · Δ7d +0.4
Sentiment51 · Δ7d -
So what
Balanced signals (Net Neutral). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.
Confirming evidence
- • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +0.4.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Loan balances declined year over year and deposits declined from December 2025.
- • Low coverage and limited peer operating data make valuation and market-reaction signals less reliable.
- • The earnings increase included a Bearing-related gain, and loan growth remains weak.
Catalyst clock
2026-07-23
Q2 2026 reported profitability improved materially
Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
47
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendTrend unavailable
Trend unavailable
Δ7d
-
Δ21d
-
Value
54
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.4
Δ21d
-0.4
Sentiment
51
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendTrend unavailable
Trend unavailable
Δ7d
-
Δ21d
-
Why this grade
Composite grade C. Momentum 47.0 / Value 53.6 / Sentiment 50.5
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-07-29. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
55%
Probability
Target price
$46.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-07-29 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$39.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-07-29 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-10-27
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-27
Market Cap
$269.53M
Beta
0.45
Shares Out
5.43M
P/E (TTM)
12.1
P/S (TTM)
3.78
P/FCF (TTM)
20.86
Rev YoY
+24.9%
EPS YoY
+111.1%
Gross Margin
-
Op Margin
+35.3%
Net Debt
$23.95M
Current Ratio
0.23
As of 2026-10-27 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data