B+
Bull case
20%
Probability
Target price
$52.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-07-29 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
VABK
Virginia National BanksharesCNasdaq / Banks
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
Reported Q2 operating metrics improved across profitability, NIM, efficiency, asset quality, and capital/liquidity, while the dividend remains supportive. [#SEC-8K-2026-07-23]
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite.
What can break
Loan balances declined year over year and deposits declined from December 2025.
Momentum
47
Value
58
Sentiment
59
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $46.00 · Bull $52.00 · Bear $39.00Analysis 2026-07-29; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-07-29 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-09
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-09
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-09. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Why
Momentum47 · Δ7d -
Value58 · Δ7d -0.0
Sentiment59 · Δ7d -
So what
Balanced signals (Net Neutral). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.
Confirming evidence
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Loan balances declined year over year and deposits declined from December 2025.
- • Low coverage and limited peer operating data make valuation and market-reaction signals less reliable.
- • The earnings increase included a Bearing-related gain, and loan growth remains weak.
Catalyst clock
2026-07-23
Q2 2026 reported profitability improved materially
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
47
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendTrend unavailable
Trend unavailable
Δ7d
-
Δ21d
-
Value
58
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.0
Δ21d
-8.1
Sentiment
59
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendTrend unavailable
Trend unavailable
Δ7d
-
Δ21d
-
Why this grade
Composite grade C. Momentum 47.0 / Value 57.9 / Sentiment 59.4
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-07-29. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
55%
Probability
Target price
$46.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-07-29 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$39.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-07-29 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$250.59M
Beta
0.45
Shares Out
5.43M
P/E (TTM)
12.1
P/S (TTM)
3.78
P/FCF (TTM)
20.86
Rev YoY
+24.9%
EPS YoY
+111.1%
Gross Margin
-
Op Margin
+35.3%
Net Debt
$23.95M
Current Ratio
0.23
As of 2026-09-09 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data